- EUR/USD thoroughly tested the November trend-line, and so far with success
- This trend threshold holds the key to our near-term outlook
- Stay above support and a challenge of top-side levels looks likely in days ahead; drop below and the tune changes
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Heading into last week we were optimistic on the prospect of a higher EUR/USD, and while it was relatively unchanged when the dust settled there is reason to believe we will see higher prices in the days ahead. But if the euro doesn’t get into gear soon it runs the risk of breaking lower. So, we’ll approach this with an objective eye and continue to lean on the trend-line rising up from last month’s low as key to the near-term outlook. It was thoroughly tested during a 24-hr stretch on Thursday and Friday. There was some ‘help’ Friday on the Flynn/Trump headline which spooked dollar longs across the board, but looking at this from a pure technical standpoint – the line held. As long as it continues to do-so, then a rally is seen as likely to continue to mount towards the yearly highs.
Levels on the top-side to watch are 11961, 12005, 12034, and then the big high at 12092. We may or may not see the yearly high challenged this coming week, but we’ll stay the course as long as there isn’t a break back below the aforementioned trend-line, and at worst, if that trend-line breaks we’ll give it to last week’s swing-low at 11809 before turning neutral at the least, if not flipping the script all together. In which case, attention will be placed on the area surrounding 11700 as it has been quite important on several occasions August.
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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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