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Bitcoin Barely Changed, Volatility Shrinks Further

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Bitcoin is trading barely changed again, in yet another uneventful trading session. After opening at $ 238.12 on BTC-E, we rallied to a high of $ 240.32 before falling back to a daily low of $ 236.41. But ultimately prices closed near the open at $ 238.57. We are currently trading slightly below yesterday’s open at $ 237.88.

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Prices are quoted at $ 237.27 on OKCoin and $ 235.69 on BitStamp. OKCoin futures continue to price in a small premium over spot, with the contract expiring on Friday trading at $ 240.11 and the June 26th contract quoting $ 241.09. This indicates that futures traders are slightly bullish.

Today’s daily range was only $ 3.91 dollars. Longer-run volatility, as measured by the 20 day Average True Range, fell to a new yearly low of $ 5.35. Aside from a short-lived move higher at the end of April, the 20 ATR has seen a steady decline since peaking on January 26th.

We continue to be in a ”wait and see” mode. To generate a sustainable rally, BTC/USD will need to break above $ 250 dollars per coin. Notable resistance levels above $ 250 can be found at $ 258 on BTC-E and $ 262 on OKCoin.  But as we’ve previously said both of these are weak levels and due to the proximity of $ 250 they may not be very relevant. If prices break $ 250 they will likely surge much higher due to pent up demand. Bit higher up at $ 270 dollars we have a stronger resistance. But the key number on the upside will be $ 300 dollars. This is a former triple top that ended 2 previous bitcoin rallies and a break above it should exacerbate the gains.

On the lower end, a decisive break ( not just a brief spike) below $ 230 dollars may lead to more losses. Below $ 230 we have two strong support levels, at $ 210 ($ 214 on OKCoin) and $ 200 dollars. The $ 210/$ 214 level is a double bottom in BTC prices and the $ 200 mark is a round, psychological level. Because of the existence of two strong support levels below $ 230, I would be cautious on the bearish side until we manage to clear $ 200 dollars per coin.

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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Bitcoin Retraces Gains, Forum Hacked

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Bitcoin can’t catch a break. Today the cryptocurrency retraced most of the gains made during the past 4 days. After peaking out at $ 243.63 in yesterday’s trading session, today BTC/USD fell to a low of $ 237 flat before stabilizing somewhat. About two hours ago we had another retest of $ 237 with prices trading as low as $ 237.07 before bouncing back. One coin is currently trading for $ 238.11 on BTC-E, not far from the lows.

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We saw the same sell-off pattern on OKCoin, with prices hitting a low $ 236 flat on the spot exchange and $ 239.13 on the June 26th futures contract. We are currently quoted at $ 237.11 on the exchange and around $ 240 dollars per coin on the several futures contracts.

With today’s move lower, even the upward momentum is mostly dead. In our article two days ago, we cautioned our readers that despite the move higher, ”for now, we continue to be in wait and see mode as BTC/USD has yet to make a decisive break. When it comes to trends, it’s better to be fashionably late to the party.” You can find our up-to-date support/resistance levels in the same article. With prices barely changed from two days ago, there’s no point to keep repeating the same levels in every article, so let’s look at some news. Note that none of these news are market moving, at least not in the short-term.

Bitcoin entrepreneur Roger Ver and OKCoin have engaged in a semi-public spat over the domain Bitcoin.com. Roger, the original owner of the domain, surrendered control to OKCoin in exchange for a redesign of the site and a minimum $ 10,000 monthly fee. For more on this ongoing saga, head over to Coindesk.

Payment processor Payza says that bitcoin transactions are rising 20 percent per month. The virtual currency now accounts for 10% of the site’s deposit/withdrawals.

The popular bitcoin forum BitcoinTalk.org has been compromised. The attacker gained access at the ISP level for about 12 minutes but the site’s administrator cautioned users that they should ”act as though your password hashes, PMs, emails, etc. were compromised. The forum will probably be down for 36-60 hours for analysis and reinstall.” About 9 hours ago Theymos tweeted that the forum is now back online.

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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Bitcoin Hits New Multi-Day High

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Bitcoin hit a new multi-day high today. After opening at $ 239.63 we slowly climbed higher until the evening session pushed prices to $ 243.63. This is a new 12-day for BTC and we got within striking distance of the previous swing high at $ 247.07.

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We hit new highs on other exchanges as well. On OKCoin spot, the previous swing high made two days ago at $ 241.46 was surpassed and a new high of $ 241.72 was established. On the futures platform, we hit a high of $ 247.66 for the June 26th contract. This is $ 2.66 dollars above the previous high at $ 245 dollars per coin. Futures continue to trade at a slight premium to spot, currently at $ 244.31 compared to $ 240.40.

We have seen this pattern previously in the past. Futures, especially longer-dated contracts, tend to overshoot the spot price higher/lower depending on the current momentum. If prices are moving higher, futures will trade at a premium over spot. Reversely if the momentum is lower, the longer-dated futures will trade at a discount. As a general rule, the further a contract is to expiration, the larger the overshoot. For example, currently the May 29th contract is trading at $ 243.57. The June 5th contract is quoting $ 243.91 and like we already mentioned, the June 26th contract is at 244.31. You can find live quotes of OKCoin futures HERE.

Our general outlook hasn’t changed. While the momentum is up, there is no noticeable trend. To jump-start a new rally, BTC/USD will need to clear the important $ 250 resistance. For more levels, take a look at yesterday’s roundup.

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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Bitcoin Strings Together 4 Days of Gains

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With another close in the green, bitcoin managed to string together 4 positive days in a row. Mind you, the gains are relatively small at 30 cents, $ 1.07, $ 1.53 and $ 6.19 dollars today. Still this is a massive improvement from the completely flat market we’ve been having this month. In addition, the gains seem to be accelerating with each step, along with the daily volatility. The daily ranges for the past four days are $ 2.93, $ 3.95, $ 3.90 and $ 7.73. Here’s a daily chart of the past few weeks of price action.

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The tiny black bar at the end of chart is today’s session that only has about 3 hours under its belt. But despite the gains and the obvious pickup in momentum, no major levels have been broken. The high reached yesterday on BTC-E stands at $ 242.54, about $ 5 dollars below the $ 247.07 swing high. On OKCoin spot exchange, we hit a high of $ 240.80, $ 8 dollars below the $ 248 high. For both exchanges the key number remains to be $ 250 dollars per coin. Bitcoin will need to stage a clean breakout above the mark to generate a new rally. To avoid repetition, for more levels, take a look at yesterday’s article.

If you just read today’s news and didn’t look at the charts you would probably conclude that prices would drop, not trade higher. BitFinex, one of the largest BTC to USD exchanges got hacked. According to the announcement posted on their website, their hot wallet keys might have been compromised. They ask that all of our customers stop depositing cryptocurrency to the old addresses. According to the exchange, the cold wallet is not affected, BitFinex says that they keep 99.5% of all user funds in ”secure multisig wallets”.

So far the market isn’t too worried about the potential hack. BitFinex is currently quoting $ 240.10, not far from BTC-E’s $ 240.50 and OKCoin’s $ 239.49.

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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Top Trade Idea for May 22nd, 2015 – AUD/NZD

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At its last meeting the New Zealand Reserve Bank moved to an easing bias on interest rates. By contrast the Australia’s RBA toned its easing bias back to only a fraction short of neutral at its meeting.

The combination of these two moves delivered a strong rally for the Aussie against the Kiwi, allowing it to narrowly avert the national embarrassment of falling below parity for the first time.

However, this rally is showing signs of losing momentum. The 4 hour chart below looks to have completed an Elliot 5 wave advance. This sets up for a downward correction and on that basis my trade idea is to sell AUDNZD on a clear break below recent support looking  for a decline to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the last major rally around 1.0570

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About Ric Spooner

ric spooner

Ric Spooner is Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. He has over 30 years experience in derivates markets, and was previously a Managing Director at Sydney Futures Exchange Clearing, General Manager at JBWere Futures and Manager at Elders Futures.

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Chart Of The Day For May 21st,2015 – EUR/USD

Talking Points:

  • EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Support: 1.1059, 1.0934, 1.0808
  • Resistance:1.1214, 1.1310, 1.1466

The Euro declined against the US Dollar as expected after negative RSI divergence hinted at ebbing upside momentum. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.1059 exposes the 50% level at 1.0934. Alternatively, a turn above the 23.6% Fib at 1.1214 opens the door for a challenge of the 14.6% expansion at 1.1310.

Prices are too close to support to justify entering short in line with our long-term outlookfrom a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, we will continue to stand aside until a more attractive opportunity presents itself.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Support Sub-1.11 Under Fire

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Chart Of The Day For May 20th,2015 – EUR/USD

 Talking Points:

  • EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Support: 1.1104, 1.0992, 1.0881
  • Resistance:1.1242, 1.1327, 1.1466

The Euro turned lower against the US Dollar as expected, with sellers now threatening to push through the 1.11 figure. Near-term support is at 1.1104, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis targeting the 50% level at 1.0992. Alternatively, a move above the 23.6% Fib at 1.1242 clears the way for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 1.1327.

Risk/reward considerations argue against entering short in line with our long-term outlookwith prices in close proximity to support. With that in mind, we will continue to stand aside until a more attractive opportunity presents itself.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Sellers Threaten 1.11 Mark

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European Open Investors Shake Off Greek Risk

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European futures are pointing to the upside ahead of the first trading day of the week suggesting a more positive sentiment among traders despite Greece’s apparent insistence on walking blindly towards default without any consideration for the consequences.

For a long time I have been confident that Greece will eventually give in to the demands of its creditors and accept unpopular reforms in exchange for €7.2 billion in bailout funds, as agreed in February. As a gesture of goodwill, its credits may offer minor concessions in order to appease the Greek electorate and allow the Syriza government to claim a small victory.

The longer these negotiations go on, the less confident I am becoming and reports this weekend suggest they will not last much longer. A letter leaked over the weekend confirmed that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras wrote to the International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde informing her that Greece didn’t have the funds to make its €750 million repayment. The repayment was eventually made because Tsipras learned of an emergency reserves account at the IMF that enabled Greece to remain solvent a little longer. The country effectively used IMF money to repay the IMF.

The account was emptied to make the repayment so that’s another option that’s now off the table, so it looks like once again, when the next repayment comes due , on 5 June, Greece will not be able to oblige. The worrying thing is that despite this, Tsipras has stressed that they will not “back down on pension and labour issues”, an area where its creditors appear to hold a similar stance.

If neither side changes its stance then it would appear Greece is only a couple of weeks from defaulting on its debt and yet, the markets seem rather unfazed. Maybe investors have become immune to all this tough talk and still think Tsipras will cave or resign, enabling a late deal to be done. If we remain in this position as we near the 5 June, I doubt investors will be so confident.

Investors may continue to focus on Greek developments this morning, particularly in the absence of any major economic data to provide any catalysts for the market. This will improve as the week goes on but today we must do without. Bond yields appear to have stabilized which may offer similar stability elsewhere after some choppy conditions in recent weeks.

The FTSE is expected to open 5 points higher, the CAC 9 points higher and the DAX 31 points higher. 190515dFor a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About Craig Erlam

craigBased in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDAin 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years’ experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic research. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the BBC and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on Bloomberg TV, CNBC, FOX Business and BNN. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.

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Bitcoin Volatility Continues to Decline

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Bitcoin’s daily range dropped further to only $ 2.74 dollars today. Yesterday we had a similarly tiny range of $ 2.75 dollars. The daily high stands at $ 238.10 while the low is at $ 235.36. We are currently quoted at $ 236 flat on BTC-E.

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On OKCoin the total daily range was only $ 2.27, a reduction of 67 cents compared to yesterday. Prices are currently quoted at $ 236.26 on the spot exchange compared to around $ 236.60 for the futures contracts.

The continued decline in volatility can be seen on a long-term horizon as well. The 14 Day Average Daily Range has dropped to an new yearly low of $ 5.79 today. This compares to $ 10.47 on May 9th and an average of $ 12-$ 13 dollars in March. Further back, volatility, as measured by the ATR 14 period, spiked to $ 28 dollars on January 26th, right as BTC/USD hit an interim high of $ 303 dollars. We haven’t traded above this level since. We can see this steady decline in volatility by drawing a downward sloping trendline on the ATR on the chart below.

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These periods of low volatility are usually followed by bursts of activity and breakouts. While a move to the upside is slightly more likely, simply due to the fact that we are closer to a major resistance level than we are to support, we should be prepared for every scenario. So let’s examine both.

On the higher end, the number to watch is $ 250 dollars per coin. A clean break above the mark should spark a new rally for bitcoin. Above it we have a weak resistance level $ 258 on BTC-E and $ 262 on OKCoin. Higher up, notable resistance levels include $ 270 and $ 300. The $ 300 dollars figure on BTC-E and $ 305 on OKCoin are especially important. A bitcoin breakout beyond this price extreme could lead to us to the yearly high at $ 318 dollars.

On the lower end, weak support can be found at $ 230. This is followed by a major support area from $ 200 to $ 210 on BTC-E. The same support area goes from $ 200 to $ 214 on OKCoin. A clearing of this support and a move lower could open the door to a new downtrend in prices.

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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Bitcoin Has Lowest Daily Range Since May 2014

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Bitcoin just had its lowest daily range since May of 2014. The high today stands at $ 238 and the low at $ 235.25 for a grand total of $ 2.75 dollars. The cryptocurrency hasn’t had a tighter daily range since May 18th 2014, almost a full year ago. We are currently quoted at $ 236.78 on BTC-E.

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We had a similarly narrow range of $ 2.94 dollars on OKCoin. Prices over there are trading at $ 235.97 on the spot exchange and around $ 236.50 on all three futures contracts. The longer we continue to trade in these tight ranges, the more odds increase that we will see an eventual breakout higher/lower. Let’s take a look at what happened last year when the range dropped below $ 3 dollars.

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The chart above shows May 18th marked with a yellow rectangle. Back then the daily range fell to only $ 2.27 dollars. Keep in mind that with bitcoin prices of over $ 400 dollars per coin, this range was much narrower in percentage terms. A day after nothing happened as BTC/USD had another small range of $ 6.5 dollars on May 19th. But the day after that saw an explosion in volatility as prices surged over 10 percent higher. The daily range on May 20th was a massive $ 49.87 dollars. The breakout on that day sparked a BTC rally that lasted for 12 days and saw gains of over 50 percent in the value of bitcoin. The high of that rally stands at $ 667.53 and it was reached on June 1st.

Will we see a repeat of the past? Probably yes but this doesn’t necessarily mean that the break will happen to the upside. The surge in volatility can happen in either direction and the prudent course of action would be to wait for the market to play its hand first. The two major levels to take note of are $ 250 on the upside and $ 220 on the downside. For more levels take a look at our previous article.

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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