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Bitcoin Down $2 Dollars as Low Volatility Continues

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Bitcoin closed the day down by almost 2 dollars or just over 0.68 percent. After opening the session at $ 222 flat, BTC/USD first rallied to a daily high of $ 224.99 but from here it fell to a low of $ 219.46. Eventually we closed at $ 220.48. We are currently quoted 18 cents below the close on BTC-E. Bitcoin prices are trading at a slight premium on OKCoin at $ 221.67 and BitStamp at $ 222.69. Futures prices on OKCoin are still discounting spot prices and are currently quoted at $ 219 dollars per coin. Here’s a 15 minute chart showcasing today’s uneventful trading session on BTC-E.

apr19

The mostly range-bound day just adds more fuel (or less depending on how you look at it) to the Low Volatility fire. As we noted in our article yesterday, the average 20 day range has been in a steady decline since January 30th. After yesterday’s $ 4.62 range day, today we had a daily range of $ 5.53. While this is higher compared to yesterday, it is still well below the 20 ATR that’s currently trading at $ 8.32.

With every low-vol session, the odds increase that we will eventually have a surge in activity coupled with a one-sided move. Since the trend is still to the downside, a move lower is the more likely scenario. What are some of the important support/resistance levels for bitcoin?

The latest swing low at $ 213.98 may act as weak support. However, a more significant support level can be pinned in the area between $ 200 and $ 208 per coin. Bitcoin sellers will need to clear this support area to head lower and continue the losses. On the top end, BTC/USD will need to climb back above the $ 258 swing high to end the downtrend.

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Bitcoin Ekes Out a Small Gain as Volatility Drops

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Bitcoin ended the day almost unchanged after a V-shaped reversal. After opening at $ 220.70, prices fell to a daily low of $ 218.13 around mid-day. But bitcoin didn’t stay low for long and soon we rebounded back above the $ 220 mark. Eventually BTC/USD closed the session at $ 222 flat, for a small gain of 0.59 percent. We are currently trading at $ 221 per coin and as usual, prices are slightly higher on OKCoin at $ 222 and BitStamp at $ 223.

apr18

The total range high to low today was only $ 4.62. This is just over half of the average seen during the previous 20 days ($ 8.49). But the situation is even more interesting if we take a more long-term view. The 20 day ATR, a measure of volatility in the market, has been falling steadily since reaching an interim high of $ 13.47 on March 18th. The chart below shows this clearly.

apr18-2

Going even further back, we can see that volatility has been on a steady downtrend since peeking at $ 26.13 on January 30th. If you look at the range-bound price action since January 30th, it’s not a surprise why volatility is down. Bitcoin prices closed at $ 221.20 that day. We are currently quoted at $ 221.76, a gain of 56 cents in over two months of trading.

Previous periods of low volatility have been followed by breakouts and an increase in volatility. With the trend on the downside, the eventual spike is likely to be lower not higher. But this is far from a guarantee so be prepared for every scenario. To end the downtrend, bitcoin will need to climb back above the $ 258 swing high. On the lower end, the swing low at $ 213.98 may act as weak support but a more significant area can be found between $ 200 and $ 208 per coin. Bitcoin will need to clear this support area and head below $ 200 to continue the losses.

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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USDCAD Record Volume Highlights Near Term Capitulation Risk

  • EURUSD behavior change on the horizon?
  • GBPUSD 2nd large range weekly reversal in recent weeks
  • USDCAD largest volume (FXCM) week ever

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EUR/USD

Daily

USDCAD Record Volume Highlights Near Term Capitulation Risk

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-“EURUSD rolled over at slope resistance but several longer term technical observations are worthy of note; the rate found low at an important long term level (line off of 2008 and 2010 lows) and the ownership profile (as per COT) is at a record. The speculative crowd has never been more bearish…ever. Such conditions typically precede important reversals…although not necessarily right away. A break above the resistance lines (old support) would indicate that behavior has significantly changed and open up a run on 1.13.

GBP/USD

Weekly

USDCAD Record Volume Highlights Near Term Capitulation Risk

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-“1.4350 remains of interest but daily and weekly divergence with momentum at price lows cast doubt on whether GBPUSD reaches that level.” The sharp turn higher (and pending weekly reversal) is promising for longer term bottoming prospects, especially in light of the mentioned divergence and 2 large range weekly reversals in the last 5 weeks.

AUD/USD

Weekly

USDCAD Record Volume Highlights Near Term Capitulation Risk

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-“AUDUSD continues to trade between well-defined slope lines but beware of a possible broadening bottom (very difficult pattern to trade).”

-“Trade outside of the bearish upper parallel that has contained strength since late October would shift focus to a former support line (turned resistance in January) near .8180.” AUDUSD is pressing the mentioned upper parallel now…it’s decision time for AUDUSD.

NZD/USD

Weekly

USDCAD Record Volume Highlights Near Term Capitulation Risk

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-“NZDUSD traded to the 61.8% retracement of its 3 year range today (.7929) and the next level of interest probably isn’t until the 2013 Labor Day gap at .7722. One can’t help but notice that an epic double top is possible with a target of .5898. That would trigger on a drop below .7370.”

-The NZDUSD double top has failed to this point but slope resistance comes into play more or less at the current level and near .7800.

USD/JPY

Weekly

USDCAD Record Volume Highlights Near Term Capitulation Risk

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-“Continue to favor a broad range as 119.80-120.70 as resistance and 116.40-117.10 as support. A move through either one of these zones would define target zones of 124-128 and 110-114.”

-Near term, watch for resistance now near 120.08. The next support on a break would be the median line just above 117.

USD/CAD

Weekly

USDCAD Record Volume Highlights Near Term Capitulation Risk

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-The breakdown from a 2 and a half month topping pattern could ‘kick-off’ a much larger decline but near term focus is on early congestion from 1.1931 to 1.2046. There is slope support (former resistance) at the latter level next week. Of note as well is that this volume (FXCM) this week was a record. Volume of this magnitude can indicate near term capitulation. 1.23 is an important trading pivot.

USD/CHF

Weekly

USDCAD Record Volume Highlights Near Term Capitulation Risk

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-“USDCHF has reversed from 9 year trendline resistance. Focus is on the median line (about .9300) that extends off of the 2012 high. This line crosses through highs in 2013 and the October 2014 low. The 52 week MA is near this line as well.” This video explains more.

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Top trade idea for April 17th, 2015 – EUR/AUD

cmc

Better than expected employment data in Australia this week saw the AUD make further gains against the EUR, pushing EUR/AUD lower.  However, a bounce off previous support in EUR/AUD to complete a double top formation could see a significant reversal of the seven big figure fall over the last nine trading days.

A surprise fall in unemployment from 6.3% to 6.1% backed off expectations of a rate cut from the RBA at its next meeting on May 5. Interest rates markets re-assessed from a 75% probability of a cut to 50%, producing an AUD spike. The problem is the inconsistencies in the numbers – which many attribute to an under-resourced Australian Bureau of Statistics. If there’s a re-think, a reversal could be on the cards.

The ECB stimulus is priced and Greek disruptions could see further EUR repatriation, and the chart shows clear “lines in the sand”:

april 17

Buying at current levels, with a stop loss just below 1.3700, traders may target a return to the congestion zone between 1.4215 and 1.4450.

The post Top trade idea for April 17th, 2015 – EUR/AUD appeared first on ForexNews.com.

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XE Market Analysis: Asia – Apr 16, 2015

The dollar was lower through the N.Y. session on Thursday, resulting in the USD index falling for the third consecutive day. Dampish jobless claims and housing starts weighed on the greenback, though following recent market volatility, it appears the unit may be entering a brief consolidative phase. EUR-USD peaked at 1.0767 in early trade, before falling back to lows of 1.0685. The euro rallied back to 1.0725 into the London close, before moving to session highs over 1.0890 into the close. USD-JPY dipped under 119.00 into the open, though later recovered over 119.40, before falling into 118.95 on a generally weak dollar close. USD-CAD fell to three-month lows of 1.2153, as oil prices continued to march higher, while cable advanced to seven-session highs of 1.4967.

[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD gains were capped at 10767 following the softer 8:30 data, before the pairing moved down trading either side of 1.0700 in reportedly light trade. The pairing moved over 1.0790 into the close, as the greenback overall took a hit in late dealings. Following the recent volatility seen, the euro may now be in a position to consolidate recent moves, likely centered on the 1.0700 level. The Greece crisis smolders in the background, and overall, has potential to limit euro gains going forward.

[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY managed to rally back to 119.43 highs before heading lower, with talk of technically driven sellers stepping in ahead of the overnight high of 119.47, and the 50-day moving average, which currently sits at 119.55. The pairing traded back into 118.89 lows into the close, and for now, the April 3 low of 118.72 provides initial support, with the March 26 base of 118.33 the next downside target.

[GBP, USD]
Sterling traded higher against both the dollar and euro over the last day. Stronger than expected RICS house prices was the latest of a series of firm data, reaffirming the positive UK fundamental backdrop. Cable made its way to just shy of1.4970 in late N.Y. trade, after moving up through the morning on weaker U.S. data, and a stronger EUR-USD.

[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF drifted to 10-week lows under 1.03, the lowest since January 29 despite the latest euro bounce versus the dollar. The SNB will probably be best advised to sit on its hands during the Greek crisis, although the SNB said at its March policy review that the franc is “significantly overvalued and should continue to weaken over time,” and that it will continue to take account of the franc rate situation in policy decisions and “remain active in the foreign exchange market, as necessary.”

[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD continued its downward path through the session, initially finding some support just ahead of 1.2200. The pairing peaked at 1.2317 early on, though as oil prices put in new 2015 highs, the BoC likely back in a neutral stance, and the greenback overall continuing to struggle some, sellers held the upper hand, taking the pairing to 1.2143 lows. The 100-day moving average sits at 1.2221, and was easily taken out. The close under the level will open the door for further losses overnight. The January 20 high of 1.2114 could be targeted from there.


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USDOLLAR Major Behavior Change Takes Place

Daily

USDOLLAR Major Behavior Change Takes Place

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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-“USDOLLAR continues to respect well-defined parallels. A drop below the lower parallel would indicate an important behavior change and potential for the largest decline since July 2014. At the same time, the median line could provide resistance near 12220.” The drop below the support line indicates that trend has changed (to at least sideways and maybe down). 11952 could provide support. Watch 12088 for resistance.

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Chart Of The Day For April 16th,2015 – EUR/USD

Talking Points:

  • EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Support: 1.0461, 1.0246, 0.9997
  • Resistance:1.0712, 1.0955, 1.1040

The Euro may be readying to turn higher against the US Dollar after prices put in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Near-term resistance is at 1.0712, the March 31 low, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing a recently broken rising trend line at 1.0955. Alternatively, a reversal below the 1.0456-1.0554 area (March 16 low, 50% Fibonacci expansion) clears the way for a test of the 38.2% level at 1.0246.

We see the Euro trend as broadly bearish, in line with our long-term outlook. As such, we will approach on-coming gains as corrective in the context of a larger structural decline and position for opportunities to enter short after the move higher is exhausted. In the meantime, we remain flat.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Recovery in the Cards?

The post Chart Of The Day For April 16th,2015 – EUR/USD appeared first on ForexNews.com.

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Abenomics Report Card: C+, At Best

     When I was in college in the late 1980s, the US was obsessed with Japan.  Earlier in the decade, national newscasts ran footage of people destroying Japanese cars with a sledgehammer to protest Honda’s and Toyota’s success at the expense of Detroit.   The most indelible symbol of this concern was the Japanese purchase of Rockefeller Center in 1989, which seemed to cement Japanese superiority in our national consciousness.  On a more personal level, the international studies section of the political science department taught a course in then modern Japanese economic development.  I remember reading about the close collaboration between various government ministries and industry, along with the Japanese practice of Keiretsu, where creates an inter-locking series of businesses that act in concert.   The professor argued the Japanese method of doing business was far superior to the US, which, given the then success of our competitor, was difficult to argue with.

     But then came the collapse of the Japanese real estate bubble and the ensuing lost decades, when Japan was mired in weak growth and deflation.  As summarized by Wikipedia:

The Lost Decade or the Lost 10 Years (失われた10年 Ushinawareta Jūnen?) is the time after the Japanese asset price bubble’s collapse within the Japanese economy. The term originally referred to the years from 1991 to 2000,[1] but recently the decade from 2001 to 2010 is often included,[2] so that the whole period of the 1990s to the present is referred to as the Lost Two Decades or the Lost 20 Years (失われた20年, Ushinawareta Nijūnen). Over the period of 1995 to 2007, GDP fell from $ 5.33 to $ 4.36 trillion in nominal terms,[3] real wages fell around 5%,[4] while the country experienced a stagnant price level.[5] While there is some debate on the extent and measurement of Japan’s setbacks,[6][7] the economic effect of the Lost Decade is well established and Japanese policymakers continue to grapple with its consequences.

      In an attempt to overcome the numerous issues associated with this phenomena, new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe instituted a program named “Abenomics,” that had three provisions: a massive government stimulus, a QE program to devalue the yen and structural reforms.  While the first two arrows were implemented within 6 months after Abe taking office, the third arrow is proving more difficult to fulfill. 

      After two years into the program, let’s assess its effectiveness, starting with government spending:

According to the top chart, total public investment (darker black line) began increasing at the beginning of 2013 and continues rising.  The bottom graph shows the total value of contracted public works (the thick black line), and then breaks that information down into local (thinner black line, right scale) and national government (lighter grey line, left scale) expenditures.  Notice that while the national government spending did increase, local government spending did the bulk of the work.  The combined conclusion to draw from these two graphs is government spending did increase, as promised. 

     To analyze the net impact of this spending, let’s first look at overall GDP:

In the 1Q13, headline GDP growth sharply increased.  But the pace of growth consistently declined for the remainder of the year.  Growth again increased in 1Q14, but contracted sharply in 2Q14 after the government increased the sales tax.  Growth continued to languish for the remainder of the year.  And the contribution of government spending to overall growth was weak at best, as evidenced by the continually declining percentage contribution of this GDP component. 

     However, it could be argued the stimulus had an ancillary effect of positively impacting business sentiment.  The results of the Tankan business survey support this thesis:

Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sentiment began increasing sharply at the beginning of 2013, right after Abe’s election and the implementation of the first two arrows.  Sentiment continued increasing for the remainder of 2013.  While it decreased for the duration of 2014, it remains positive. 

     The net impact on consumer sentiment, however, has been negligible:

Sentiment was stable for the first three quarters of 2013.  But then it moved lower by a few points, where is stayed for the remainder of the Abe’s administration.

     The BOJ began a stimulus program on April 4th, 2003.  But because markets were aware of the Abe’s plan before implementation, they sent the yen lower at the beginning of Abe’s administration:

 

The yen initially dropped ~20% as a result of the anticipated policy actions; it continued moving lower as the BOJ began its QE program.  The depreciated yen, however, did not translate into a large export boost:

Most Japanese companies have moved their manufacturing offshore, meaning a lower yen has less of an impact on exports than intended.

     There has, however, been an initial increase in inflation:

The chart above shows the absolute price level (top graph) and the Y/Y percentage change (bottom chart).  While we do see an initial price bump at the beginning of 2014, that bump didn’t continue rising.  This means the Y/Y percentage change (lower chart), while still higher than previous readings, is now decreasing.

     There is, however, better news from the GDP price deflator:

The deflator increased to over 2% in 2014, and has continued to print at this level for the last three quarters. 

     That leaves the structural reforms.  Unfortunately, there has been little progress here:

Even though Abe’s coalition has held a resounding parliamentary majority for over two years, there has been little concrete progress on structural reform, leading many observers to question the government’s commitment. Complicating matters, a growing scandal over political donations has already cost Abe several of his top allies.

This shouldn’t surprise anyone.  The needed reforms would require a deep and lasting change to Japan’s overall business environment, upending vested interests that have become deeply ingrained over multiple decades.  Asking them to give up power will be difficult at best. 

     So, how is Abenomics doing?  Fair at best.  They’ve implemented a stimulus program that increased government spending and raised business sentiment.  But, overall GDP growth petered out quickly after the initial rush.  And although the BOJ did devalue the yen, the offshoring of Japanese production facilities limited the impact. While inflation initially increased, the pace of increases is slowly declining.  Finally, the much needed structural reform hasn’t happened in any meaningful way, leaving perhaps the most important element of the plan completely unfulfilled.     

Hale Stewart is a former bond broker who has been writing about economics and financial markets since 2006 on the Bonddad Blog.  He is also a tax attorney with a domestic and international practice while also forming and managing captive insurance companies for US companies.   You can follow him on twitter at:@captivelawyer  

 

       

 

        


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ECB Press Conference Invites Minimal Volatility, Limited EUR/USD Range

Talking Points:

- ECB keeps main rates on hold, as expected.

- President Draghi displays optimism over economy, but promises continuation of QE.

- EURUSD trades between $ 1.0582 and $ 1.0618 during first half of press conference.

The European Central Bank’s rate decision and press conference were notably quieter than meetings past, but that was to be expected with no change forecast in the main interest rate and interest rate corridor, and no change in the recently unveiled QE program. While the most exciting moment of the press conference came when a protestor interrupted President Draghi’s opening statement, FX markets were little impressed with the update on the state of affairs in the Euro-Zone.

The comments that President Draghi issued were fairly predictable and rather bland: recent economic data has been improving, but it’s too early to declare the crisis over; the ECB will continue its QE program until there is a sustainable pickup in inflation back towards the +2% annual target; the ECB intends to fully complete its QE program through September 2016; and there is no concern over the scarcity of bonds available, so there won’t be a change in the main interest rates for the foreseeable future.

See the DailyFX economic calendar for Wednesday, April15, 2015.

EURUSD 1-minute Chart: April 15, 2015 Intraday

ECB Press Conference Invites Minimal Volatility, Limited EUR/USD Range

Around the rate decision and press conference, EURUSD held around its opening level of $ 1.0595, reaching a high of $ 1.0618 and a low of $ 1.0582 during the period. While prices oscillated fairly quickly between these two levels, there was a notable lack of directional trade around the ECB commentary. The two prior ECB meetings produced EURUSD daily ranges of 334-pips and 127-pips, whereas today’s range was only 93-pips at the time this report was written.

Read more: Trade Setups in EUR-crosses Ahead of ECB Meeting

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

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Top Trade Idea For April 15th, 2015 – USD/RUB

forex_logo

The USD/RUB is hovering inside a significant support area around 48.55 to 50.75. The lower end of this range corresponds with an old resistance-turned-support level and a bullish trend line, while the upper end is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the last significant upswing from the June 2014 low. Meanwhile the 200-day moving average comes in at 49.35 while the psychological support is at 50.

Thus for all these reasons, a potential rally could be on the cards soon. The key level of resistance to watch is at 53.50, the high from earlier in the week. Should this level break down then the bulls may then target the downward-sloping trend line next.

If however the USD/RUB does not respond to the above mentioned support area then the selling may continue over time towards the 45 handle or further lower still towards the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 43.10 before making its next move.

Figure 1:

april 15

Source: Forex.com

About Fawad Razaqzada

fr

Fawad is FOREX.com’s technical analyst based in London. He entered the FX market in early 2010. Having graduated from Brunel University with a degree in economics, and mentored by some of the industry’s leading experts, he has an excellent understanding of the fundamental drivers of the markets. But it is his unique ability to predict price moves using technical analysis that has made him popular amongst his peers. Fawad is regularly quoted in the leading financial publications such as the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Market Watch, FT and Associated Press. On a day to day basis, Fawad produces and delivers market commentary and research for FOREX.com, with an emphasis on technical analysis. He achieved his CISI Level 3 Certificate in Investments (Derivatives – Retail) in early 2011.

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