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Markets Temporarily Bulled up for NFP Headline

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  • Market focus temporarily shifts from Greece to U.S. payrolls
  • Investors expect strong NFP print after yesterday’s ADP
  • Trading to be hampered by liquidity constraints
  • Sweden’s Riksbank flatfoots market again

This morning’s focus temporarily shifts from Greece to the U.S., where the granddaddy of economic indicators, the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, could give up a subtle hint to the timing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate lift off. Capital markets are expected to be active, at least until U.S. trading desks thin out enough for the long weekend, just after New York’s midday.

All week, traders have been held captive by the barrage of Greek headlines, which has instigated brief risk-off and -on position taking, depending on what’s been said. Nevertheless, the USD heads into this morning’s employment report being well supported by yesterday’s strong ADP (+237,000) and Institute of Supply Management survey (53.5) readings. The dollar is trading stronger against every other Group of 10 currency as position squaring dominates ahead of the NFP, and Sunday’s referendum in Greece amid thin liquidity conditions.

The expectations for a Fed rate hike as early as September will likely trade aggressively one way or another; at least until the Greek referendum results are known and assimilated by the market. If Greek-related market turmoil does happen to erupt and have a massive negative impact on the market, then this could actually influence the Fed’s first rate hike for 2015. Despite many investors willing to take a wait-and-see stance until after Sunday’s Greek event risk, others are willing to shift their focus back to U.S. fundamentals and NFP gets no bigger. Today’s price movement is expected to be whippy due to the anticipated liquidity constraints.030715dThe Buck is Well-Supported
Today’s market sentiment is upwardly biased for the USD for two reasons. Firstly, the strong ADP national employment report, and secondly, the market’s anticipation that the Greeks will vote to back the eurozone’s bailout conditions on the weekend (various polls suggest +47% for and +43% against). Market consensus for today’s jobs headline is looking for an NFP growth print of +230,000 with an unemployment rate to tick down to +5.4% from +5.5%, and a +0.2% average earnings print. Nevertheless, after last weekend’s price action on the Asian open where the EUR plummeted (€1.1186 to €1.0995) and portfolio managers pared back their euro bond exposures, many individuals will be dissuaded from holding large positions over the weekend.030715eRiksbank Stumps Markets Again
The Swedish central bank flatfooted the market again this morning and cut interest rates further into negative territory while expanding its quantitative easing (QE) program. The Riksbank cut its repo rate to -0.35% from -0.25% and extended its bond-buying program by SEK45 billion. Perhaps more importantly, Swedish policymakers are prepared to make their monetary policy ‘more expansionary’ if needed. The accompanying statement noted that monetary easing is needed as uncertainty aboard had risen and that it was difficult to assess the consequences related to Greece.

The market will now be concerned that the Riksbank could act between meetings. If it does, there are a number of options open to policymakers. It’s possible for them to cut their repo rate even further into negative territory, and again increase monthly QE amounts. Finally, the central bank could intervene directly in the forex market.

During this morning’s Riksbank post-rate decision press conference, Governor Stefan Ingves noted that Greece’s problems were “no big issue” for Sweden, but there is increasing economic uncertainty in Europe. He noted that Swedish monetary policy was having an impact on inflation, and reiterated that inflation had bottomed and is heading back higher. The SEK currency is broadly weaker across the board after the unexpected cut rates and expanded QE. The EUR/SEK went from €9.2450 to approach €9.37 directly after the release.030715fAbout Dean Popplewell

PopplewellDirector of Currency Analysis and Research, Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2007, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders. Follow on Twitter and on his Google+ profile.

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Bitcoin Experiences 5 Percent Retracement

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After hitting the $ 270 level yesterday, bitcoin experienced a significant retracement. Prices fell from a high of $ 269.30 to a low of $ 254.99 today. This is a fall of $ 14 dollars or just over 5 percent, in less then 24 hours. We are currently testing the June 17th high at $ 256.75 dollars. Earlier attempts to clear the level failed, as can be seen on the chart below (market with yellow rectangle). We are currently trading at $ 256.19 on BTC-E.

july1

Meanwhile on OKCoin prices are quoting $ 258.32. This is also close to the June 17th high on OKCoin at $ 259.24. Resistance becomes support and the previous highs may now act to support falling prices. You can find a live OKCoin chart HERE. But a stronger support may be the round $ 250 level on both OKCoin and BTC-E. Lower still, a decisive move below $ 240 on BTC-E and $ 238 on OKCoin should end the rally.

To continue the move higher, BTC will need to clear the resistance at $ 270 dollars. Higher up, significant resistance can be found at $ 300 (BTC-E) and $ 305 (OKCoin).

Futures on OKCoin saw yesterday’s $ 10 dollar premium fall to $ 8 dollars today. The far out September 25th contract is currently quoting $ 266.93 dollars. From yesterday’s high, the Sept25 contract has fallen slightly over $ 15 dollars. This compares to just $ 10 dollars for the regular OKCoin exchange.

We have previously cautioned our readers that if BTC falls, the futures pricing in a premium will be hit harder than the spot exchange. Furthermore the far out contracts that are currently benefiting from the largest premiums will experience the largest losses. We’ve seen a limited case of this today. If the losses continue and they lead to the end of the current rally, you can expect to see this entire premium disappear quickly. You can find a live chart of the September 25th contract HERE.

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Bitcoin Bounces at $270 Dollars Resistance

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Another green day for bitcoin. After opening at $ 254.20, the cryptocurrency broke the previous June high at $ 256.75 and proceeded to rally a further $ 12 dollars to a new high at $ 269.30. This is very close to the $ 270 figure, a level we noted in our article yesterday as a potential resistance level. Thus it shouldn’t come as a surprise that BTC paused the rally at this point. We are currently quoted $ 6 dollars below the highs at $ 263.50 on BTC-E.

june30

On OKCoin, bitcoin is trading at $ 264 dollars flat, after reaching a high of $ 268.36 earlier in the day. You can find a live OKCoin chart HERE. Futures continue to price in a large premium, with the nearer July 3rd contract quoting $ 265.55 while the far out September 25th contract is trading at $ 274.26. This is around the $ 10 dollar premium seen yesterday. The large premium continues to indicate that futures traders are betting on more BTC gains.

The next hurdle for the bulls is the $ 270 dollars figure. We will need to see a clearing of this level and a move higher to continue the rally. If that happens, the next stop may be the round $ 300 mark. This is a triple top that ended two previous bitcoin rallies. Prices will likely stall here, at least on the first test. But if we manage to break the $ 300 level ($ 305 on OKCoin), this could open the door to the yearly high at $ 318 dollars and beyond.

On the bottom end, a move below $ 240 dollars should end the downtrend. More support below can be found at $ 230, followed by $ 222 and the double bottom at $ 210 (BTC-E) and $ 214 (OKCoin).

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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Bitcoin Retests Highs After $11 Dollars Gain

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Bitcoin is retesting the highs reached on June 17th. After opening at $ 246 flat, BTC/USD slowly rallied until it topped out at $ 256.27, just 48 cents below the previous high. In the first hour of the new session, that high was broken as the cryptocurrency hit $ 257.24 dollars per coin. We are currently quoted slightly below the highs at $ 255.97 dollars.

BTCUSDDaily-june29

The small move above the previous high at $ 256.75 doesn’t classify as a break. As we’ve said previously, BTC will need to break above $ 259 dollars per coin to regain the lost momentum. On OKCoin prices didn’t even breach the previous high. Today bitcoin rallied to $ 257.32, almost $ 2 dollars below the $ 259.24 high. Same with futures, here too prices failed to break above the previous milestone. For example the September 25th contract hit a high of $ 267.75, two dollars below the $ 270.09 high.

Even though the highs haven’t been broken yet, the trend is up, as can be seen on the chart above. Adding more evidence to this, the September 25th contract is currently quoted at $ 267.19, over $ 10 dollars above the $ 256.93 price seen on the spot exchange. A premium of futures over spot means that futures traders are expecting more gains to come for bitcoin. This premium was $ 8 dollars yesterday, meaning that expectations for gains have increased. This metric shouldn’t be taken as a prediction, but more as an indicator of the trend strength and the traders positioning. The premium could evaporate quickly if BTC reverses.

If $ 259 on BTC-E and $ 263 on OKCoin are cleared, the next resistance is at the $ 270 mark. Above this, the triple top at $ 300 dollars ($ 305 OKCoin) will also act as resistance. This will be a major hurdle for the bulls but if they manage to clear it, BTC/USD could see the gains intensify. On the lower end, a move below $ 240 dollars on BTC-E and $ 238 dollars on OKCoin will end the current rally.

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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Bitcoin Gains $7, Nears $250 Dollars Again

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Bitcoin is back in an upswing after prices gained $ 7 dollars in the past 26 hours. We opened the day at $ 242.30. From here it was a slow and steady climb to the daily high at $ 248.83. In the early hours of the new session yesterday’s high was taken out and BTC/USD set a new 8-day high at $ 249.60. We are currently quoted just 9 cents below the high at $ 249.51.

BTCUSDH4-june27

A similar movement was seen on OKCoin, with the slight difference that prices gained almost $ 9 dollars on this exchange, climbing from a base of $ 241.77. We are currently quoted at $ 250.16 on OKCoin, about one dollar below the $ 251.36 high.

While a clearing of $ 250 is positive for the bulls, the better resistance area to look is above the June 17th swing high, $ 256.71 on BTC-E and $ 259.24 on OKCoin. Just $ 2 dollars higher we find the April high at $ 259 on BTC-E and $ 263 on OKCoin. A clearing of this entire area and a move above $ 259/$ 263 may lead to more gains for BTC.

More resistance levels can be found at $ 270 and $ 300 on BTC-E and $ 270 and $ 305 for OKCoin. The former triple top near $ 300 will be especially important, as any breakout above it should intensify the move higher. On the lower end, a decisive move below $ 240 on BTC-E and $ 238 on OKCoin will likely end the rally.

Futures on OKCoin increased their premium over spot. The near July 3rd contract is quoted at $ 254.05 while the far out September 25th contract is trading at $ 259 dollars flat. The premium on the far out contract is now at $ 8.84 dollars, up from $ 4/$ 5 dollars two days ago. We’ve seen this behavior in the past. As the rally intensifies, futures traders will start to price in higher prices, with the largest gains in the far out contracts. But if the move higher fizzles out, the far out contracts will be hit the hardest.

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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Bitcoin Break Below $240 May End Rally

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Another 24 hours have passed and bitcoin is back where we left it yesterday. We are currently quoted at $ 243.05, just 50-60 cents below yesterday’s price. The daily range was a tiny $ 3.53 dollars, with a high at $ 244.53 and a low at $ 241 flat. For the past 8 days now BTC/USD has traded in a tight range between $ 240 and $ 250 dollars per coin (on BTC-E).

BTCUSDH1-june26

Prices have traded in a similar albeit slightly wider range on OKCoin. Here the high stands at $ 251.02 while the low is at $ 237.92. A clear break below $ 238 dollars may end the rally on OKCoin. For BTC-E, this level is at $ 240 dollars per coin. Curiously enough, the $ 240 mark (BTC-E) is the half-way point for this year’s range. As we noted in our yesterday article, prices have oscillated around the $ 240 dollars mark all year, which is the mid point between the yearly high at $ 318 and the yearly low at $ 162.

To restart the rally and regain some of the lost momentum, the bulls will need to break the previous peak at $ 259 on BTC-E and $ 263 on OKCoin. More resistance levels can be found at $ 270 and $ 300 on BTC-E, for OKCoin $ 270 and $ 305. This is a former triple top and a breakout above it could extend the gains.

On the lower end, below the crucial $ 238/$ 240 level we have some support at $ 230 dollars. Below here another weak support can be found at the $ 220 swing low for OKCoin ($ 222.23 BTC-E). But the major test for the bears will be the double bottom formation at $ 210 dollars per coin (BTC-E) and $ 214.30 (OKCoin). You can find a live chart for OKCoin HERE. For BTC-E, you can go to their website, or you can create a demo account if you want charts from the MetaTrader platform.

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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Chart Of The Day For June 26th ,2015 – EUR/USD

  • EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Support: 1.1127, 1.1054, 1.0964
  • Resistance:1.1199, 1.1290, 1.1345

The Euro remains in consolidation mode after producing the largest daily drop in three months against the US Dollar. A daily close below the 50% Fibonacci retracementat 1.1127 exposes the 61.8% level at 1.1035. Alternatively, a turn above the 38.2% Fib at 1.1199 opens the door for a challenge of the 23.6% retracement at 1.1290.

Prices are wedged too closely between near-term support and resistance levels to justify taking a trade long-term Euro outlook from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, we will remain flat for now and wait for an actionable opportunity to present itself.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Quiet Consolidation Continues

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Bitcoin Still Trading Around $243 Dollars

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Bitcoin is trading flat today. We opened at $ 241.85, traded down to $ 240.10 before rallying to a high of $ 245.30. Prices are currently quoting $ 243.10 for one bitcoin. This is around where we’ve been trading for the past six days now. The high of this ”range” is at $ 250 while the low is at $ 240 dollars per coin.

BTCUSDH1-june25

A decisive break below $ 235 dollars ($ 233 on OKCoin) may end the rally. However a stronger support can be found little lower at $ 230 dollars per coin for both exchanges. To continue the momentum higher, the bulls will need to push BTC/USD above $ 259 on BTC-E and $ 263 on OKCoin. More resistance levels can be found at $ 270 and $ 300 (for OKCoin $ 305).

Futures traders are still bullish on bitcoin. While OKCoin spot prices are trading at $ 240.78, the June 26th contract is quoting $ 242.20 while the far out September 25th contract is at $ 245.11 dollars at the moment. But this shouldn’t be taken on its own and confirmation from the price itself is needed. The premium could quickly disappear if bitcoin takes a tumble.

Not much on the news front. Prices have stayed mostly flat this year, hovering around the $ 230 mark. But this hasn’t stopped the VC investments to bitcoin companies. Here are a couple of the most recent infusions of capital. Bitcoin hardware wallet Case successfully raised $ 1.5 million dollars. The hardware wallet has numerous security features that include biometric technology.

Decentralized marketplace OpenBazaar raised $ 1 million dollars. The money will be used to fund several full-time developers. OpenBazaar is working to create a peer-to-peer decentralized e-commerce website.

At the start of June, financial services company Mirror raised $ 8.8 million, bringing its total to $ 12.8 million. Mirror is trying to develop a smart contracts platform that will function on top of the bitcoin blockchain. For more on what smart contracts are, take a look at the bitcoin wiki.

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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Bitcoin Down $5 Dollars as Rally Winds Down

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Bitcoin is down about $ 5 dollars today as the rally seems to be slowly winding down. After opening at $ 248.54, prices slowly drifted lower to $ 243.12 dollars per coin. We are currently quoted not far from the lows at $ 243.51. The downward bias during the past 30 hours is clearly visible in the chart below.

BTCUSDH1-june24

On OKCoin we opened at $ 247.12, traded to a low of $ 242.01 before closing at $ 243.66. One coin is selling for 241.95 at the moment. In a sign that the rally may not be completely over, futures continue to price in a premium. The near June 26th contract is trading at $ 243.56 while the far out September 25th is quoting $ 245.32 dollars per coin. You can find live OKCoin futures prices on this page. But even this premium is slowly evaporating. Yesterday the premium on the September 25th contract was $ 4.88 dollars, today it’s only $ 3.37.

The final strike for the bulls should come on a break below $ 230 dollars. A decisive break below this level will likely end the uptrend. To continue the rally, bulls will need to break $ 259 on BTC-E and $ 263 on OKCoin. Above this level, more resistance can be found at $ 270 and $ 300 (for OKCoin $ 305). As we’ve repeated numerous times before, the $ 300 mark is a triple top formation that spelled the end for two previous BTC rallies. A breakout above this figure should exacerbate the gains.

Blockchain Capital raised $ 7 million dollars that will go to new bitcoin ventures. The company is lead by Bitcoin Foundation Chairman Brock Pierce and has so far invested in Coinbase and Ripple Labs among others. The company decided to change its previous name ”Crypto Currency Partners”, in a bid to capitalize on the interest behind the blockchain technology. While many are skeptical on whether bitcoin can make it as a currency, the opinions on the technology underpinning the network (the blockchain) are overwhelmingly positive.

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Bitcoin Higher, Andresen Submits Block Size Changes

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Bitcoin is trading higher today. After opening at $ 242.48 BTC/USD slowly moved up to $ 247.97. Since hitting the high we have retraced a bit, prices are currently trading at $ 245.81.

BTCUSDH4-jun22

A similar move played out on OKCoin but here we rallied to a high of $ 247 flat before falling back. We are currently quoted at $ 246.01. You can find a live OKCoin chart HERE. Futures continue to price in a healthy premium over spot with the June 26th contract trading at $ 249.05 while the far out September 25th contract is quoting $ 250.89. Futures traders are keeping the rally dream alive but things could change quickly and the premium could disappear if prices head below $ 230 dollars. For the important levels we’re watching, take a look at yesterday’s article.

The lead bitcoin developer Gavin Andresen has submitted a proposal for a hard fork in the bitcoin protocol. The main purpose of the changes is to implement larger block sizes, from the current 1 MB to 8 MB in 2016. From there on out the size of the block will double every two years, i.e. it will be 16 MB in 2018, 32 MB in 2020 etc…

Before we go on, let’s explain what a ”block” is. All bitcoin transactions are recorded in a public ledger known as the blockchain. The smallest item of this chain is 1 block. It holds the record for the most recent transactions that haven’t been recorded in any previous blocks. More on this HERE.

The changes will become effective once 75 percent of all hashpower (mining power) agrees. Once this happens, the 75% will form a new fork in the transactions chain. Any miners which choose not to implement the new changes will be left behind on the old un-forked protocol. The earliest possible date for the implementation is January 11th 2016. After the 75 percent super majority is achieved, the changes will become effective in two weeks time.

The larger block size will enable higher transactions per second but there is on-going debate in the developer community whether this is needed at the current stage of bitcoin development.

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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