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Webinar: Dollar Prospects Hinge on Yellen- EUR, GBP Setups Favored

Talking Points

USDOLLAR Daily

Webinar: Dollar Prospects Hinge on Yellen- EUR, GBP Setups Favored

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Notes:The Dow Jones FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker USDOLLAR) rebounded off confluence support last week on the back of the NFP release. The focus range to start the week is 12049- 12123/31 and we’ll be looking for the weekly opening range to offer further guidance on our near-term directional bias. Base case scenario- a breach of this range is capped off by 12204 with our broader bearish invalidation level set at the high-day close at 12280. A break of the lows targets support objectives at 12023 & the 50% retracement at 11970.

EURUSD Daily

Webinar: Dollar Prospects Hinge on Yellen- EUR, GBP Setups Favored

Notes: The breakout potential we noted last week materialized with the rally taking out all of our topside objectives before stalling just ahead of a key resistance confluence at 1.1253/63. Interim support rests at 1.1120 backed by our bullish invalidation level at 1.1045/53. Note that this level is now defined by the 61.8% extension of the advance off the December low, the 200-day moving average & basic medina-line support. Bottom line- the pair remains constructive while above 1.1045 with a breach of key resistance targeting the August High-Day outside reversal close at 1.1385 (also the 88.6% retracement of the October decline).

Avoid the pitfalls of near-term trading strategies by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the “Traits of Successful Traders” series.

GBPUSD Daily

Webinar: Dollar Prospects Hinge on Yellen- EUR, GBP Setups Favored

Notes: Sterling reversed off the 1.4654/88key resistance zone last week with the decline now checking a support confluence at 1.4373 where the 50% retracement of the advance converges on a pair of slope lines extending off the May high. If the pound is heading higher- Here is where you would want to see support. A break below this threshold shifts the focus towards the 2016 low-day close at 1.4219.

Continue to track these setups and more throughout the week, subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount!

Check out SSI to see how retail crowds are positioned as well as open interest heading into February trade.

Relevant Data Releases

Webinar: Dollar Prospects Hinge on Yellen- EUR, GBP Setups Favored

Other Setups in Play:

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or ClickHere to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday’s on SB Trade Deskat 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)


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Week Ahead in FX – After NFP Miss All Eyes on Janet Yellen

marketpulse

The U.S. added Less Jobs Than Expected in January, But a Rise in Wages Boosted the USD
The U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) report published on Friday revealed a slowdown of the headline jobs number. The American economy added 151,000 jobs in January coming under the market’s forecast of 190,000. In December the economy posted a massive 292,000 (now revised downward to 252,000) and a lower number was anticipated. Hourly wages rose in January by 0.5 percent. The unemployment rate also dropped to 4.9 percent given the strong pace of job gains in 2015. The current unemployment rate in the U.S. is the lowest since November 2007.

The effect of the miss on the headline NFP number is muted given the impact on an already improbable rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve in March. Macro economic conditions have shifted radically from December when the Fed announced its historic first rate hike in a decade. The follow up to that policy decision will not come in March if U.S. fundamentals continue to slowdown.

The economic calendar for next week is lighter than usual as most major central banks skip February. The highlight will be U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony as part of her semiannual Monetary Policy Report. Chair Yellen will face questions from the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, February 11 at 10:00 am EST and then from the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday, February 12 at 10:00 am EST. Investors will be on the lookout for comments on the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on March 15 and 16.080216gFed Chair Gets Chance to Add Clarity to Forecasts
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will testify twice during the week when she delivers the semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the House and Senate special committees. Each session will have the Fed Chief release a prepared statement and then take questions from Committee members. Given that there is no Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in February this gives Yellen a chance to reassure the market about the Fed’s intentions regarding potential monetary policy decisions. The second rate hike to be announced at the end March FOMC meeting rose in probability after the stronger wage and unemployment rate, despite the lower than expected headline NFP.

The Fed forecasts 4 interest rates in 2016. The central bank opted to hold rates during the December meeting and fundamentals other than the jobs component have slowed down even more so between this week and the middle of March the U.S. economy would have to improve significantly for the Fed to hike again. It is too early for the Fed to cut its forecasts, but then again the street has already done so, with 2 to 3 rate hikes instead of the 4. Given the fact that this is an American presidential election year that could also limited the ability of the Fed to modify monetary policy during political sensitive periods leading up to the final vote.

U.S. Consumers Confident Yet Still Not Spending
The paradox of the U.S. consumer continues to confound economists. Wages and the number of jobs have risen to before crisis levels, and the confidence of consumers is high, but while their confidence remains high in the short term they have opted to save. The U.S. economy depends on consumer spending and the retail sales with few exceptions disappointed in the last two years. Most of the rallies that start at NFP came to a crash after dismal retail sales despite the warmer weather.

Energy savings due to the low price of gas has not translated into higher consumer spending and until that happens the retail sales number will remain low. Global uncertainty adds to local woes to drive consumers to watch their spending which prevents a virtuous cycle as the economy improves.

FX events to watch this week:

Wednesday, February 10
4:30am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
10:00am USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, February 11
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
10:00am USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
5:30pm AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
Friday, February 12
2:00am EUR German Prelim GDP q/q
8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m
10:00am USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

*All times EST
For a complete list of scheduled events in the forex market visit the MarketPulse Economic Calendar

About Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso EsparzaSenior Currency Strategist, OANDA, Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, he established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto. Follow on Twitterand on his Google+ profile.

The post Week Ahead in FX – After NFP Miss All Eyes on Janet Yellen appeared first on ForexNews.com.

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Dollar Recovers After Painful Stumble as Market’s Fed Doubts Waver

Dollar Recovers After Painful Stumble as Market’s Fed Doubts WaverDollar Recovers After Painful Stumble as Market’s Fed Doubts Waver

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar: Neutral

  • A rebound in Treasury Yields and the Dollar reflect the market’s press against an ambitious FOMC forecast for rates
  • Fed timing speculation will be one of the key themes that has potential fuel with Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony
  • See our 1Q 2016 forecast for the US Dollar in our Trading Guides page

A number of major market themes were driven this past week; but for FX, the Dollar’s remarkable volatility grabbed most traders’ attention. Will the Greenback finally rekindle a full trend and pull the broader FX market it once again in the coming weeks? Taking measure of the currency’s performance this past week, the range of the past 10 months held firm with the 200-day moving average keeping the floor beneath the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar). However, the technical restraints doesn’t fully account for the extraordinary volatility experienced. The sharpest two-day drop intraweek in two-and-a-half years, followed by a robust Friday rebound speaks to a market more capable of transitioning to a genuine trend.

Over the past year, the Dollar’s bullish ambitions have tangibly cooled. While this hasn’t seen the currency completely lose grip, it has certainly lost the remarkable momentum through 2014. This restraint is borne from the market’s doubt of the FOMC’s ambitious monetary policy forecast. Despite the central bank’s December rate hike, the market has maintained its boldfaced skepticism of the group’s projections for its pace of tightening this year. According to the forecasts from the policy authority at liftoff, 2016 will supposedly see 100 basis points (bps) of gradual hikes. That is four moves at a standard 25 bp clip. In clear contrast, the market through swaps and Fed Fund futures show serious doubt of even one hike. That disparity was clear through 2015, with each deferment by the Fed justifying the Dollar’s waylaid advance. As of today, the disparity between market and central banks is as large as we have seen in years.

As this extraordinarily fundamental discrepancy closes (conforming to the dovish market or hawkish Fed), the impact on the Dollar will be substantial. The influence this theme holds over the market was evidenced in last week’s volatility. The dramatic two-day drop through Thursday was spurred by the troubling employment, inflation and business details of the ISM service sector report. The subsequent rebound was just as clearly launched by the January employment report. While the headline NFPs may have fallen short of consensus, its average has been a hefty positive net increase of jobs month-in-and-month-out. Moreover, the unemployment rate has dropped to a multi-year low 4.9 percent and the inflation component in wage growth swelled. Further support of this clout can seriously swing the greenback’s next trend.

In the week ahead, there are a few items of moderate importance and one that is exceptional. Import inflation, retail sales, consumer confidence and a few Fed speeches will hit the radar. However, it is Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s semi-annual report on monetary policy in Congress that will give us the most definitive read on the group’s views of monetary policy timing.

Since everything in the FX market is valued on a relative basis, it is important to keep in mind the context. Even if the Fed looks like it will have to delay its ambitious forecast (likely), it could still find the Dollar outpacing its major counterparts. For example, if the US central bank is still seen managing just one hike this year; it would be extraordinary contrast to fresh efforts by the ECB, BoJ and PBoC to upgrade their accommodative stances. And, these dovish counterparts taking further steps to halt growth, inflation and financial issues is likely. As such, keeping an eye on the Chinese foreign reserves figures, Japanese GDP (Monday after next) and ECB rhetoric will be just as important in assessing the Dollar’s bearings as the US data itself.

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USD/CAD – Loonie Erases January Losses Ahead of Employment Data

marketpulse

The Canadian dollar rallied versus its American counterpart on Thursday as disappointing data continues to hurt the USD. U.S. unemployment claims recording a rise of 8,000 applications for 285,000 last week when only 2,000 was forecasted. The rise in the number of claims joins both purchasing managers indices (PMI) manufacturing and non-manufacturing, which are leading indicators of economic health, coming in below expectations.

The USD tumble despite oil prices falling around 1.6 percent combined to boost the CAD to trade below 1.38. Comments from U.S. Federal Reserve voting member William Dudley about the decay of global financial conditions putting into question a March rate hike from the central bank. After a historic rate hike back in December macro conditions have shifted dramatically and the 4 rate hikes forecasted by the Fed look unlikely.050216hThe USD/CAD depreciated 0.32 percent in the last 24 hours. The currency pair had a volatile day of trading with a 1.16 percent difference between the daily high and low price levels. The loonie managed to remain under 1.38 and will be awaiting the results of Canadian and American employment data to be published on Friday morning.

The market will be obsessing on the NFP numbers given the potential implications, but Canadian numbers will play a big part on how the loonie ends the week. After a strong December Canadian jobs are expected to slow down, but keeping the unemployment rate steady at 7.1 percent. The loonie’s recovery after a horrendous January will validate the decision from Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Stephen Poloz who held rates unchanged despite some market participants pushing for a rate cut after the rapid fall in oil prices and the loonie.

The U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) have been heavily correlated with the ADP private payrolls numbers in the past three months. The ADP beat expectations slightly on Wednesday, February 3 with 205,000 new jobs added to the economy. The forecast for the NFP are a more conservative 189,000 jobs considering the massive 292,000 posted last month. The other factor at play this week was the rise of unemployment claims by 8,000 that marks a trend of rising claims since the second week of December. If there is a chink in the employment numbers it can further question the probability of a rate hike by the Fed sooner rather than later and the USD would fall as a result.

CAD events to watch this week:

Friday, February 5
8:30am CAD Employment Change
8:30am CAD Trade Balance
8:30am CAD Unemployment RateUSD
8:30am USD Non-Farm Employment Change
8:30am USD Trade Balance
8:30am USD Unemployment Rate

*All times EST
For a complete list of scheduled events in the forex market visit the MarketPulse Economic Calendar

About Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso EsparzaSenior Currency Strategist, OANDA, Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, he established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto. Follow on Twitterand on his Google+ profile.

The post USD/CAD – Loonie Erases January Losses Ahead of Employment Data appeared first on ForexNews.com.

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Weekly Trading Forecast: Will We See More of Last Week’s Exceptional FX and Commodity Volatility?

The Dollar suffered one of its most abrupt swoons in years until NFPs stabilized the currency. Oil and gold meanwhile generated remarkable volatility and tentative stabs at trends. Will we see more of these active markets this week?

US Dollar Forecast – Dollar Recovers After Painful Stumble as Market’s Fed Doubts Waver

A number of major market themes were driven this past week; but for FX, the Dollar’s remarkable volatility grabbed most traders’ attention.

British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD 2016 Rebound Vulnerable to Upbeat Fed Testimony

The near-term rebound in GBP/USD may continue to unravel in the week ahead should the Federal Reserve’s semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony with Chair Janet Yellen highlight a further deviation in the policy outlook.

Japanese Yen Forecast – A Week of Wonder and Befuddlement for the Yen

Last week we looked at the astonishing surprise decision by the Bank of Japan to move to negative interest rates.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Down Trend May Resume on Yellen Testimony

The Australian Dollar may resume its long-term down trend after rebounding to a monthly high last week as testimony from Fed Chair Yellen reboots US rate hike speculation.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – Highest Unemployment Rate in 2yrs. Stalls CAD Rally

This week’s moves have put the Bank of Canada, and CAD traders in a precarious position.

Chinese Yuan Forecast – PBOC Prepared the Yuan Ahead of One-Week Holiday

Both the offshore (CNH) and onshore yuan (CNY) rates closed higher on Friday after China’s central bank raised the yuan reference against the dollar to a one-month high of 6.5314.

Gold Forecast – Gold’s Luster at Risk as Fed Testimony Looms

Gold prices rallied for a third consecutive week with the precious metal advancing more than 3.5% to trade at 1157 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

Weekly Trading Forecast: Will We See More of Last Week's Exceptional FX and Commodity Volatility?

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What are the Traits of Successful Traders? See what our studies have found to be the most common pitfalls of retail FXtraders.


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Top trade idea for February 5th, 2016 – EUR/JPY

The European Central Bank versus the Bank of Japan – who will win? Both are pursuing a “competitive devaluation” strategy through monetary stimulus, both desperately need the boost a lower currency can deliver to their respective economies. Over the last 7 months, the ECB has the edge, but that may change very soon.

The BoJ boosted EUR/JPY with its announcement last Friday of negative cash rates. EUR/JPY jumped. However, the pair had already risen from 128 to 130, and as markets realised the transmission mechanism (the carry tradfe) was largely sidelined the initial enthusiasm for selling JPY faded, and EUR/JPY slid over this week.

New Bitmap Image

My view is the selling this week merely ciorrected an overbought EUR/JPY, and the rise could continue ahead of the ECB meeting on March 10. That’s a large window of time, and any break through the channel top (currently around 133)  could see a significant rise.

So I’m placing a stop entry buy order at 133.25, with a stop loss at 132.75. Targets are 137, 138.70 then 140.80.

The post Top trade idea for February 5th, 2016 – EUR/JPY appeared first on ForexNews.com.

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Preview for January NFPs and Trade Setups for EUR/USD, USD/JPY

Talking Points:

- Euro and Yen likely to move in same direction around NFPs.

- Retail crowd continues to fade recent US Dollar selloff.

- As market volatility rises, it’s a good time to review risk management principles.

It’s the first US labor market report after the Federal Reserve’s December policy rate hike, one which is being viewed with much consternation as global economic and financial market conditions have soured dramatically in the first few weeks of 2016. With US economic data already off to a terrible start to the year – it’s worst since 2009, according to the Citi Economic Surprise Index – markets are very much of the mindset to question the Fed’s intended rate hike path.

The key question today: is US labor market strength strong enough to keep the Fed rate hike optimism afloat? Current expectations for today’s data are only decent, with the Unemployment Rate expected to hold at 5.0%, and the headline jobs figure to come in at +190K after December’s impressive +292K. Likewise, due to base effects, wage growth figures are due to come in at a muted +2.2% y/y.

The market consensus for today’s NFP release seems to be reasonably muted. The two inputs used in the 10-year Nonfarm Payroll Regression Model, ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services Employment sub-index, have both subsided in recent prints. As a result, the regression model is forecasting January Nonfarm Payrolls at +193K. I’ve also included the summary table on the stats.

Chart 1: 10-year Nonfarm Payrolls Regression Model

Preview for January NFPs and Trade Setups for EUR/USD, USD/JPY

NFP multiple regression model ADP ISM services 2006 to 2015

Table 1: 10-year NFP Regression Model Statistical Summary

Preview for January NFPs and Trade Setups for EUR/USD, USD/JPY

Note: these are publicly available data, and a basic form of analysis is being used, so these findings aren’t necessarily unique.

A disappointing print relative to the strong December figure wouldn’t be all that surprising, particularly in context of the warmer weather in December – the warmest on record in the US – so there may be a payback period over the coming months. Likewise, especially over the past few years, there has been a statistically significant seasonal distortion in the NFP figures depending upon what month they’ve been issued:

Chart 2: 5-year Nonfarm Payroll Seasonality

5-year nonfarm payrolls seasonality

The simple nature of today’s report – that it’s not a November or December report – may prove to be a significant hurdle to a big number. It seems today that a few things have lined up for the January NFP report to be a bit of a disappointment.

Given recent commentary from Fed officials – if it was the skepticism cast on their December SEP at the January FOMC meeting or more recently by NY Fed President Dudley – the US Dollar desperately needs another big print here in order for future rate expectations to firm up; currently, only zero rate hikes are being priced in next year, per the Fed Futures contract:

Table 2: Fed Funds Futures Contract Implied Probabilities: February 5, 2016

Preview for January NFPs and Trade Setups for EUR/USD, USD/JPY

Fed rate hike probabilities WIRP

See the above video for technical considerations in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, the USDOLLAR Index, and others.

Read more: USDOLLAR Eyes Major Support Ahead of ADP, ISM Services

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Gold Climbs to 3-Month Highs, Pushes Past $1150

marketpulse

Gold has posted further gains on Thursday, as the metal trades at a spot price of $ 1151.88 an ounce in the North American session. In economic news, US Unemployment Claims disappointed, climbing to 285 thousand. Manufacturing numbers were a mix, as Preliminary Unit Labor Costs posted a strong gain of 4.5%, well above the forecast. However, US Factory Orders posted a decline of 2.9%, missing expectations.

Gold prices have been moving higher for most of the week, and have climbed above the $ 1150 line for the first time since the end of October. Market turbulence in early 2016, caused by the Chinese slowdown and collapse in oil prices, has been great news for gold. The metal climbed 5.3% in January and has improved a further 3.3% in the first week of February. Weak US numbers this week have pushed gold higher against the US dollar. On Wednesday, ADP Nonfarm Payrolls dropped to 205 thousand in January, compared to 257 thousand a month earlier.  There was more bad news from ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, a key gauge of the services sector. The index dipped to 53.2 points in January, its worst showing since March 2014. On Thursday, Unemployment Claims rose to 285 thousand, above the expectations of 279 thousand. The week wraps up with the official Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. With the markets expecting a sharp drop compared to the previous reading, the markets could react negatively and send gold prices even higher.

Is the US economy in trouble? This key question is on the mind of many market players, who are concerned about lukewarm US numbers, which have characterized the first month of 2016. Strong growth and a robust labor market in the second half of 2015 helped convince the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December, but the change in economic climate led to the Fed to hold off on another rate hike in January and issue a cautious policy statement. If employment and inflation numbers do not improve soon, it’s unlikely that the Fed will raise rates in March. In the heady days following the Fed’s historic rate hike, there was talk of up to four rate hikes in 2016, but this appears unlikely, given current economic conditions.

XAU/USD Fundamentals
Thursday (Feb. 4)

  • 2:15 US FOMC Member Eric Rosengren Speaks
  • 7:30 US Challenger Job Cuts. Actual 41.6%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 279K. Actual 285K
  • 8:30 US Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity. Estimate -1.5%. Actual -3.0%
  • 8:30 US Preliminary Unit Labor Costs. Estimate 3.9%. Actual 4.5%
  • 10:00 US Factory Orders. Estimate -2.5%. Actual -2.9%
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -170B. Actual -152B

Friday (Feb. 5)

  • 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 189K
  • 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.3%

*Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are EST
*Key events are in bold

XAU/USD for Thursday, February 4, 2016050216iXAU/USD February 4 at 12:10 EST
Open: 1141.93 Low: 1156.73 High: 1156.73 Close: 1151.88
XAU/USD Technical
050216j

  • XAU/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair posted slight gains in the European session and has leveled off in North American trade.
  • 1151 has switched to support as gold continues to gain ground. This weak line could see further action during the day
  • There is resistance at 1175
  • Current range: 1134 to 1151

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1151, 1134, 1098 and 1080
  • Above: 1175, 1191 and 1205

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
XAU/USD ratio is unchanged. Long positions have a solid majority (58%), which is indicative of strong trader bias towards gold continuing to move higher.

About Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher Currency Analyst, OANDA, Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years. Follow on and on his Google+ profile.

The post Gold Climbs to 3-Month Highs, Pushes Past $ 1150 appeared first on ForexNews.com.

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GBPUSD Breakout Levels- Key Resistance in Focus Ahead of BoE

Talking Points

GBPUSD Daily

GBPUSD Breakout Levels- Key Resistance in Focus Ahead of BoE

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook: Sterling made a breach of the weekly opening-range highs today with the rally now eyeing confluence resistance at 1.4560/89. This zone is defined by the 50% retracement of the November decline, the 1.618% extension of the advance off the lows and the 2015 low-day close. The immediate topside bias is at risk below this level, but we’ll be looking for pullbacks / long triggers to offer more favorable entries. Note that daily momentum has also broken above a multi-month resistance-trigger and keeps the trade constructive while above the median line extending off the May high.

Avoid the pitfalls of near-term trading strategies by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the “Traits of Successful Traders” series.

GBPUSD 30min

GBPUSD Breakout Levels- Key Resistance in Focus Ahead of BoE

Notes: A clear break of the weekly opening-range highs & channel resistance today has the pair eyeing the 1.4660/89 resistance level. We’ll be looking for resistance triggers on a pullback with a breach above this key zone targeting subsequent objectives at the 1.4731 (2016 open) and more significant resistance at 1.4795-1.4812 where the 2013 low & the key 61.8% retracement reside. Subsequent targets eyed at 1.4894 & 1.4964.

Interim support rests with the median-line / 1.4560 backed by our near-term bullish invalidation level at 1.4480 where the 100% extension converges on former channel resistance & the lower median-line parallel (highlighted). A break back below the weekly opening-range highs at 1.4444 would be needed to put the shorts back in control. A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 38-41pips per scalp. Added caution is warranted heading into the Bank of England interest rate decision tomorrow & U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday with releases likely to fuel volatility in the Sterling & USD crosses.

For updates on these setups and more trades throughout the week, subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount!

Relevant Data Releases

GBPUSD Breakout Levels- Key Resistance in Focus Ahead of BoE

Other Setups in Play:

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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5 Things The Markets Are Talking About

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Stocks are down, euro area PMIs drop and China’s new growth target. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.

1. Stocks are down
Markets in Asia dropped overnight with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average closing 3.2 percent lower after Nomura Holdings Inc.’s earnings disappointed. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 fell 0.66 percent at 10:55 a.m. in London. U.S. stock-index futures were little changed.

2. Euro area PMIs
Markit Economics said its composite purchasing managers index for January declined to 53.6 — a four-month low — from 54.3 in December. In a worrying sign for the ECB’s inflation goal, output prices dropped to their lowest level since March 2015. In the U.K. confidence at services companies fell to the lowest level in three years, according to Markit. The data comes a day ahead of the Bank of England’s latest policy decision with speculation increasing that the bank’s next rate move may be a cut.040216a3. Syngenta deal
China National Chemical Corp. agreed to buy Swiss pesticide and seeds maker Syngenta AG for more than $ 43 billion in cash, according to a statement out today, with the deal expected to close by year end. With 1.4 billion mouths to feed in China, the deal makes strategic sense for the state-backed company. The takeover will have to be approved by U.S. security officials who need to ensure there will be no risk to American food security from the deal.040216b4. Oil rally?
Oil prices could increase by 50 percent by the end of the year, with analysts predicting a $ 15 per barrel rise, estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. In the shorter term, West Texas Intermediate for March delivery has risen 66 cents to $ 30.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange by 11:24 a.m. London time following its biggest two-day drop in seven years. However, the best performing commodity so far this year has been gold, which held its ground near a three-month high this morning.

5. China growth target
China has set a growth target for the world’s second-largest economy of 6.5 percent to 7 percent this year, the first time it has set a range for its growth target since 1995. The economy is under pressure, with investors looking to so-called fallen angels as more debt is cut to junk. In response, the PBOC plans to relax rules on when foreign investors can bring money in and out of the country in a loosening of the country’s capital controls, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter.040216cAbout Dean Popplewell

PopplewellDirector of Currency Analysis and Research, Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2007, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders. Follow on Twitter and on his Google+ profile.

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