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Top trade idea for June 29th, 2016

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Crude oil has turned sharply lower a few days back so it appears that five wave rally up from 35.19 is completed, thus a new three wave move down is underway. We are expecting a corrective decline, labeled as blue wave four that will ideally retrace back to 43-45 area, where we see 38.2% Fibonacci support, as well as length taken of wave two, where both can act as a turning point higher.

Crude OIL, Daily

d oil june 29 2016

On the lower time frames, Crude oil turned nicely down at the start of the month from 51.65 where market completed extended blue wave three, so our wave count suggests that recent bearish structure with three legs is wave four. In fact, decline from 50.52, labeled as wave C), already spiked beneath wave A) levels so minimum requirements for a valid correction were met, thus new bullish turn can be happening now with current rise back above 48.40 region that opens room for more gains ahead. Ideally market will continue higher into wave five, above 51.65.

Crude OIL, 4H

oil 4

About Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat, based in Slovenia, has been in the forex markets since 2003. He is a technical analyst and individual trader who has worked for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com. He also is founder of forex services on www.ew-forecast.com. EW-Forecast.com provides technical analysis of the financial markets, highlighting behavioral patterns based on the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP). Website: http://www.ew-forecast.com/ Try EW-Forecast.com’s Services Free For 7 Days at http://www.ew-forecast.com/service

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US Crude Continues to Drop on Brexit Turmoil

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US Crude has posted slight losses on Monday, continuing the downward trend we saw in the Friday session. US crude is trading at $ 46.34 a barrel in the North American session. Brent Crude is trading at $ 47.34, for a premium of $ 1.00. It’s a quiet start to the week, with no major US indicators on the schedule. Goods Trade Balance and Flash Services PMI, both missed their estimates. On Tuesday, the US will release Final GDP and CB Consumer Confidence.

Financial markets across the globe remain in shock after the stunning news on Friday that the UK had voted to exit the European Union. The markets had bet that the Remain camp would narrowly win the day, and the opposite result sent stock markets tumbling on Friday. The historic decision raises many questions and has resulted in political and financial instability in Europe and the UK. The pound has plunged some 10 percent since the referendum. US crude has followed suit with a drop of 6.7 percent since the vote, as investors have flocked to safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen.

The fallout after the historic EU referendum is difficult to gauge just after the vote, but there’s no doubt that Brexit will have unpredictable economic and political consequences in the UK and Europe, perhaps for years to come. Already, Prime Minister David Cameron has announced his impending resignation and the British Labor party is in turmoil. Even before the dust of Brexit has settled, there are signs that this divorce between Britain and the EU could be rancorous and messy. One British MP quipped on Friday that the EU referendum was the “divorce of the century”. British politicians have said there is no rush to implement the EU exit mechanism, but furious European lawmakers have called for the UK to leave as soon as possible. Britain may have voted “Leave”, but the timing and the type of exit plan remain unclear. The future framework of political and economic relations between the UK and the continent will have to be negotiated and we will see plenty of uncertainty in the coming months.

The EU referendum has ushered in a period of instability and uncertainty across Europe, with Brexit seemingly the only certainty one can point to. On the EU side, the bloc has plenty of new headaches, as it must deal not only with the British exit but also from rejuvenated Euro-skeptics across Europe. The Brexit vote is likely to renew debate about EU membership in countries like the Netherlands and Denmark. Even in France, a staunch member of the club, EU membership could be revisited, as Jean-Marie Le Pen, head of the Front National party, has called for an EU referendum in France. The EU is under a real threat of destabilization and will have to figure out how to deal with the tremendous challenges suddenly brought on by Brexit.

Overshadowed by the Brexit vote, the US wrapped up last week with soft manufacturing and consumer confidence numbers. Core Durable Goods Orders came in at -0.3%, marking the third decline in the past four months. This figure was well short of the forecast of +0.1%. There was no relief from Durable Goods Orders, which posted a sharp drop of 2.2%, compared to forecast of a 0.5% decline. The UoM Consumer Sentiment report also missed expectations, with a reading of 93.5 points. The markets had expected a reading of 94.2 points. Next up is Final GDP on Tuesday, and the strength of the release could have major implications regarding a rate move during the second half of 2016.

WTI/USD Fundamentals
Monday (June 27)

  • 8:30 US Goods Trade Balance. Estimate -59.5B. Actual -60.6B
  • 9:45 US Flash Services PMI. Estimate 52.0. Actual 51.3

Upcoming Key Events
Tuesday (June 28)

  • 8:30 US Final GDP. Estimate 1.0%
  • 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 93.2

*Key events are in bold
*All release times are EDT

WTI/USD for Monday, June 27, 2016280616jWTI/USD June 27 at 11:30 EDT
Open: 47.1 Low: 46.35 High: 47.95 Close: 46.34

WTI/USD Technical
280616k

  • WTI/USD posted gains in the Asian session but reversed directions in the European session. The pair is steady in North American trade
  • 46.49 is fluid and is currently a resistance line
  • 43.45 is providing support

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 43.45, 39.32 and 35.25
  • Above: 46.49, 50.13, 53.50 and 56.79

About Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher Currency Analyst, OANDA, Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years. Follow on and on his Google+ profile.

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APAC Currency Corner – Another financial meltdown on the cards?

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Post-Brexit vote, the debate has centred on whether it will be the catalyst for another Lehman Brothers-style meltdown. While there’s a lot of dust still to settle, central bankers are ready and willing to use whatever tools necessary to calm investor’s nerves and avoid a global meltdown. While markets were extremely volatile on Friday, trading was extremely fluid and liquidity was better than anticipated.

It is important to keep in mind that the Brexit fallout isn’t over. We are likely to feel aftershocks for weeks, perhaps months, to come. The difficulty lies in anticipating the frequency and scale of these markets aftershocks. We should expect more waves of risk-off sentiment to hit the market as the Brexit fallout intensifies. I think investors should brace themselves for nasty periods of non-selective waves of selling in global equity markets. Right now the only certainty is Brexit itself.

The British pound – Our views on Sterling
The pound suffered a drop of historic proportions. However, a significant percentage of the drop and the ensuing volatility was a result of the massive appreciation of the Pound in the days preceding the Brexit vote. On June 17, the market was trading at 1.400, so a Friday close 1.3700 was quite a bit better than I had anticipated. However, the pound is trading closer to 1.3400 this morning, down more than 200 points.

The main issues:
From a structural perspective, the Pound is extremely vulnerable. The UK invests more income abroad than it takes in and imports far more goods and services than it exports. The economy depends on its ratings to attract foreign capital to cover the deficit. If the UK’s rating comes under fire and investors’ appetite for the UK turns negative, the Pound will suffer and the UK will struggle to fund the shortfall. Fortunately only 25 % of UK bonds are foreign owned. While the drop in value may provide a silver lining for the exports, it’s unlikely to outweigh the mounting negatives.

I fully expect the Bank of England (BOE) to cut interest rates at its August meeting. From an interest rate perspective, it will weigh negatively on the Pound.

There’s a huge concern that London’s status as the global financial capital will crumble if the UK loses its “passporting” rights. These rights permit banks to locate themselves in the UK while offering products and services in the EU.

Given this doom and gloom outlook, it’s not hard to envision the Pound trading between 1.15-1.20 by the year end.270616dYen – Intervention on the way?
Not to be outdone on the volatility scale, the dollar fell to JPY99.00 in panicky market conditions when it became apparent the Leave camp was winning. There was a sharp bounce off the inter-day low, with some pointing to intervention. However, the move was more likely due to a large GBPJPY order hitting the market when the pair gapped through 145 in thin liquidity.

We are still on full intervention watch on USDJPY, especially if the market takes on the 100 level again. Given the magnitude of the JPY market movement on Friday, I suspect the risk of intervention has increased immensely. This threat should keep USDJPY downside supported in the near term, while risk-off should attract opportunistic selling, as the JPY is the chief haven currency for investors.270616eGold – Scramble for the shiny metal
Bullion dealers struggled for physical gold when a gold rush ensued post-Brexit. Investors cleaned out stock of gold coins, one-ounce bars and rushed to establish gold positions to hedge against further Brexit fall-out. Gold had its best day since the 2008 crisis.270616fAUD – Under pressure
The Australian dollar was swept away in the Brexit tsunami before recovering to pre-Brexit levels later in the day. However, the AUD is again under the pressure of a salacious level of uncertainty in financial markets, which is weighing negatively on risk sentiment in early APAC trade.

With US rate hikes all but ruled out, and once the market finds some equilibrium, we could possibly see the Aussie dollar begin to appreciate; for no reason other than that a 1.75% yield is attractive during these uncertain times.

Ultimately, as the RBA is focused on returning to a 3% inflation, the weaker currency will likely have to do the heavy lifting. The Brexit may offer the opportunity for the RBA to slash interest rates more aggressively than market expectations.

Outside of gold, I expect the stronger dollar-weaker commodity price relationship to take hold. So we should see additional pressure on hard commodity prices especially if the Brexit adds further pressure to the fragile global economic growth outlook. These negative should continue to weigh on the long-term outlook for the Australian dollar.270616gCNH
The Yuan continues to weaken in the face of a stronger USD following the Brexit vote. The fear is that this may revive concerns of further devaluation, which could be in the offing.

The Yuan fell to its lowest levels in five years on Friday, as investors scurried for haven assets. I anticipate the risk theme to continue driving the investor sentiment, with the Yuan trading off  its back foot.270616hMYR
Currencies like the MYR, which carry hefty USD currency debt burdens, are susceptible to the stronger USD on this current flight to safe-haven assets. Malaysia public sector debt is at nearly 55% of GDP, making it one of the most burdensome in the EM-Asia basket.

The stronger dollar’s relationship with commodity prices will weigh negatively on oil prices. Given that the MYR is extremely sensitive to the adverse fallout from risk sentiment, coupled with a high level of uncertainty in global markets, this should continue to weigh negatively on the MYR and regional currencies over the short term.

Keep in mind that central banks have been preparing for the Brexit “playbook” by keeping policy tools ready for action if needed. I expect that calm will return to the markets sooner rather than later.

About Stephen Innes

StephenSenior Currency Trader and Analyst, Stephen has over 25 years of experience in the financial markets and specializes in Asian currencies at OANDA . After having started his trading career with NatWest Bank, he is currently based in Singapore as a Senior Currency Trader and Analyst with OANDA, focusing on the movement of the Aussie Dollar and ASEAN Currencies. Stephen has an extensive trading experience in Interest Rate Futures, Money Markets and Precious Metals. Prior to joining OANDA, he worked with organizations like Cambridge Mercantile, Nat West, Garvin Guy Butler, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. Stephen was born in Glasgow, Scotland, and holds a Degree in Economics from the University of Western Ontario. Follow on Twitter profile.

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Gold Jumpy Ahead of Brexit Outcome, US Jobless Claims Dip

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Gold has moved in both directions on Thursday, but has shown little net movement over the day. The metal is trading slightly above the $ 1260 level in the North American session.  On the release front, US numbers were a mix. US unemployment claims slipped to 259 thousand, below expectations. However, New Homes Sales dropped to 551 thousand, well short of the forecast. Today’s highlight is the Brexit referendum vote in the UK.

Will the Remain camp pull out a win in the Brexit referendum? After a bitter and hard-fought campaign, millions of Britons are voting on whether the country remains in the EU or exits from the bloc. Most polls show a neck-and-neck race between the Remain and Leave camps, so undecided voters will likely swing the vote and determine the final outcome. However, there is clearly a discrepancy between the polls and the market mood, as market sentiment continues to lean towards a victory by the Remain camp. This sentiment has boosted the pound, which briefly broke above 1.49 on Thursday and is trading at its highest level in 2016. The Remain camp has warned that a vote to leave the EU would damage the UK economy, while the “Leave” vote has tapped into voter dissatisfaction with Brussels, particularly concerning immigration and over-regulation by the EU. The economic stakes are massive, as the UK economy of GBP 2.9 trillion is the fifth largest in the world and number two in Europe, after Germany. A vote to leave the comfort zone of the EU would be a journey into the unknown, with unpredictable economic and political consequences for both the UK and the European Union. If the Remain camp does reign victorious, gold prices could drop, as the market appetite for risk will increase, which could come at the expense of safe-haven gold.

Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen sounded cautious in her testimony about the US economy when she appeared before Congress this week. As expected, Yellen did not provide any clues about a future rate hike. She acknowledged that the US economy could face some adversity, saying that “[c]onsiderable uncertainty about the economic outlook remains”. Yellen said that she’s “hopeful that we will see a pickup in growth”, but skeptics might respond that the markets want to see action from the Fed and not just hope. The Fed has clearly been out of sync with the markets, as underscored by the Fed’s statements back in December that it might raise rates in 2016 up to four times. Meanwhile, here we are in June, and there’s no clear indication that the Fed will raise rates at all this year. In her testimony, Yellen said she does not expect the US economy to enter a recession, but if such a scenario did occur, the US would not follow Japan and Europe and adopt negative interest rates. On a more positive note, Yellen said that weak oil prices, low interest rates and stronger wage growth should support consumer spending.

XAU/USD Fundamentals
Thursday (June 23)

  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 271K. Actual 259K
  • 9:45 US Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 50.5. Actual 51.4
  • 10:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 561K. Actual 551K
  • 10:00 US CB Leading Index. Estimate 0.2%. Actual -0.2%
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 59B. Actual 62B

Upcoming Key Events
Friday (June 24)

  • 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.1%

*Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are EDT

XAU/USD for Thursday, June 23, 2016240616kXAU/USD June 23 at 12:20 EDT
Open: 1262.53 Low: 1257.50 High: 1271.86 Close: 1264.42

XAU/USD Technical
240616l

  • XAU/USD was flat in the Asian session and has been choppy in the European and North American sessions
  • 1255 is providing support
  • There is resistance at 1279
  • Current range: 1255 to 1279

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1255, 1232 and 1207
  • Above: 1279, 1307, 1331 and 1361

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
XAU/USD ratio has shown gains in long positions on Thursday, continuing the trend seen on Wednesday. Long positions have a majority (60%), indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD breaking out and moving to higher levels.

About Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher Currency Analyst, OANDA, Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years. Follow on and on his Google+ profile.

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Top trade idea for June 24th, 2016 – EUR/GBP

After the UK’s surprise vote in a referendum to leave the European Union, the fall out is significant. GBP fell 15 big figures (FIFTEEN!) against the USD in 5 hours, share markets were smashed and gold rallied $ 100 an ounce. And they’re just the first blush reactions.

Surprisingly, the EUR has held up quite well. Many commentators have argued that Europe needs Britain just as much as Britain needs Europe. In fact, if a Brexit occurs, it may imperil the whole Union. Yet EUR is down less than 5% against the USD, compared to GBP’s 10% plus fall. That’s why traders are examining the EUR/GBP chart:

Untitled

 

First let’s acknowledge the extraordinary conditions. In 33 years of trading, I’ve only experienced a handful of days like this. Look at that daily candle, and the spike in volatility identified by the leap in the Average True Range at the bottom of the chart.

Fundamentally I suspect the EUR needs to play catch up on the belting of GBP. A fall back through 0.8100 is my signal to sell. Not only is this a breach of previous resistance/support (green line), it would satisfy a head and shoulders like pattern on the 5 minute chart, not shown.

A stop entry sell order, with very broad boundaries to ensure execution in a fast moving market, is my preferred method. A stop loss at 0.8182 is further away than normal, reflecting highly volatile conditions, and offering a chance to profit from a target at 0.7700.

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Oil Rises Further Above $50 on API Report

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Oil rose further above $ 50 a barrel on Wednesday after an industry report showed a large drop in U.S. crude inventories, with analysts expecting volatile trading ahead of Britain’s referendum on EU membership.

U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.2 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday, far more than analysts expected. Official stocks data is due later on Wednesday from the U.S. Department of Energy. [EIA/S]

“What we have is basically the leftovers of the reaction from the API report,” said Olivier Jakob, oil analyst at Petromatrix, of oil’s rally. “There is a risk that the DOE will not show a stock draw of the same magnitude.”230616cBrent crude was up 33 cents at $ 50.95 a barrel at 0859 GMT. U.S. crude climbed 46 cents to $ 50.31, marking its first rise above $ 50 since June 10.

Oil also benefited from a boost in risk appetite in global markets as investors were cautiously optimistic about a “Remain” vote in the EU referendum on Thursday.

“Though some may be forgiven for thinking that the outcome is a foregone conclusion, the inconsistency between the betting money and the polls mean that conditions are ripe for a fresh bout of volatility,” said Stephen Brennock of oil brokers PVM.

Riskier markets also drew support from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s cautious comments on the U.S. economy the previous day, in which she virtually ruled out a July rate rise.230616dThe dollar fell against a basket of currencies. A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for other currency holders and tends to support oil prices.

The drop in U.S. crude inventories, if confirmed by the DOE figures at 1430 GMT, would be the fifth straight weekly decline and adds to signs that a supply glut which has halved oil prices in the last two years is easing.

Other signs include lower U.S. shale oil production due to reduced investment in the wake of the price collapse, underpinning a wider drop in non-OPEC supply in 2016.

A spike in unplanned supply losses has also supported prices this year. Nigerian rebels who have been sabotaging the country’s crude exports denied on Tuesday they had agreed to a ceasefire, lending support to prices.230616e

About Dean Popplewell

PopplewellDirector of Currency Analysis and Research, Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2007, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders. Follow on Twitter and on his Google+ profile.

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Top trade idea for June 22nd, 2016 – USD/JPY

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In 15 hours or so, the voting will begin and soon we will find out whether the UK public has chosen to remain or exit the EU. As you would expect, politicians are making their final pitch for votes on the last day of campaigning as they try to win support of those still undecided. Expect to see increasing levels of volatility in the interim and the markets are likely to turn very wild once the outcome of the referendum becomes clear in the early hours of Friday – especially for the British pound. But we have discussed in length the potential impactions of “Brexit” or “Bremain” on the pound, FTSE and other UK-linked markets, as well as gold. Today, we are looking at USD/JPY, which can be thought of as a proxy for risk.

If risk assets rally in the aftermath of a “remain” outcome the USD/JPY could move sharply higher, too. Demand for the safe haven yen will likely fall, while the USD could bounce as the market reprices the odds for the timing of the next rate hike in the US forward, as one less source of global uncertainty should be an encouragement for the FOMC hawks. Conversely, if the Brexit camp wins, safe haven yen could rally sharply, which should put downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Judging by today’s price action in the equity markets, however, it looks like investors are betting on Bremain rather than Brexit.

But it is for technical rather than fundamental reasons why I am paying closer attention to the USD/JPY today, for it has created several indications on its daily chart that suggests a potential bottom may be forming. That is provided that the key area between 105.00 and 105.55 does not turn into strong resistance now (good chance it will) and limit the potential gains.

So, what are these bullish indications? Well, for a start, the USD/JPY’s RSI indicator has only just recovered from 30, suggesting it may be oversold anyway. The RSI has also created a positive divergence with price: it has made a higher low compared with the lower low for the USD/JPY. This suggests that the bearish momentum may be waning.

What’s more, the USD/JPY has already created a bullish engulfing candlestick formation on its daily chart on Tuesday. This pattern clearly shows a shift from selling to buying pressure and usually, but not always, precedes further follow-up gains.

But it is important to ponder over the location of this bullish pattern in order to remain objective.

On the one hand, you have the support trend of the falling wedge pattern (which in itself is a bullish pattern) converging with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level of the previous upswing around the 103.95 area, making it an ideal location for profit-taking.

On the other hand, however, the previous support at 105.55 and psychological level of 105.00 have both broken down, which means the USD/JPY has formed a new lower low. With price residing well below the moving averages too, no one can argue that the trend is clearly bearish and that it has accelerated.

Indeed, the kick-back rally could easily be rejected at that pivotal 105.00-105.55 area. This resistance area has already been tested once – on Tuesday – leading to a modest pullback so far. If the low of Tuesday’s reversal candle (~103.58) breaks then this would completely invalidate the bullish setup. In this potential scenario, the next stop for the USD/JPY could well be around the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level at 101.90 or the next big figure: 100.

However, if price makes another attempt and this time breaks above the 105.00-105.55 resistance area then we could see the onset of a bigger rally, as this outcome will no doubt prove some sellers wrong, which could trigger a short-covering rush. In this potential scenario, the USD/JPY could quickly rally towards the resistance trend of the falling wedge pattern, around 108.00, perhaps after a brief stop at 106.40 first.

16.06.22 usdjpy

About Fawad Razaqzada

Fawad is FOREX.com’s technical analyst based in London. He entered the FX market in early 2010. Having graduated from Brunel University with a degree in economics, and mentored by some of the industry’s leading experts, he has an excellent understanding of the fundamental drivers of the markets. But it is his unique ability to predict price moves using technical analysis that has made him popular amongst his peers. Fawad is regularly quoted in the leading financial publications such as the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Market Watch, FT and Associated Press. On a day to day basis, Fawad produces and delivers market commentary and research for FOREX.com, with an emphasis on technical analysis. He achieved his CISI Level 3 Certificate in Investments (Derivatives – Retail) in early 2011.

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WTI Crude Punches Above $49 as Brexit Fears Abate

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US crude has posted slight gains on Monday, following strong gains in the Friday session. WTI Crude is trading at $ 49.14 in the North American session, its highest level in a week. Brent crude is showing the same upward trend, and is trading at $ 50.13, for a premium of $ 0.99. On the release front, the markets continue to closely monitor the Brexit referendum vote on Thursday. On the release front, it’s a quiet start to the week, with no US events on the schedule. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen will testify before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington.

WTI Crude has jumped 6.5% since Friday, as risk sentiment has increased following the most recent polls on the Brexit referendum. These same polls have also boosted the British pound. On Friday, two polls showed the “In Camp” back in the lead, while a third poll pointed to renewed momentum for the “In” camp. The hard-fought campaign between the “In” and “Out” camps resumed on Monday, following the killing of a Labor MP last week, which shocked the UK and briefly suspended campaigning. Prime Minister David Cameron and other senior government ministers have warned that that a vote to leave the EU would cause turmoil in global financial markets, and a recent Treasury report says an EU exit will wipe out 800,000 jobs in the UK and cause a recession. With the referendum’s outcome very much in doubt, traders can expect volatility in the currency and commodity markets during the week.

With the Fed remaining on the sidelines at its June policy meeting, will we see any rate hikes this year? In the heady days of December when the Fed raised interest rates by a quarter-point, there was talk of up to four hikes in 2016. Fast forward to June, and the Fed hasn’t made a move so far this year. Many analysts are predicting only one hike in 2016, but on Friday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the economy may need just one hike in the next 2-1/2 years. Bullard did not mince words, bluntly stating that the Fed had done a poor job in its predictions about the US economy, and said the markets have no faith in the Fed’s “dot plot” of projected interest rate policy, as the Fed’s actual pace of rate hikes was much slower than its projections. Bullard added that this “mismatch” between words and action had caused distortions in the global financial markets and eroded credibility in the Federal Reserve.

US inflation and employment numbers were soft on Thursday. Core CPI and CPI, the primary gauges of consumer inflation, both posted small gains of 0.2%, within expectations. The Federal Reserve continues to insist that inflation will head towards its target of 2.0 percent, but given current inflation levels are not much above zero, it’s hard to see this happening, absent a huge surge by the US economy. Meanwhile, Unemployment Claims increased to 277 thousand, above the estimate of 267 thousand. This marked a four-week high, and once again raises questions about the strength of the US labor market. The employment picture appeared to be very bright in early 2016, but the Nonfarm Payrolls report of just 38 thousand in May shocked the markets and could delay a rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

WTI/USD Fundamentals
Monday (June 20)

  • There are no US releases on the schedule

Tuesday (June 21)

  • 14:00 Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Testifies

*Key events are in bold
*All release times are EDT

WTI/USD for Monday, June 20, 2016210616kWTI/USD June 20 at 12:10 EDT
Open: 48.21 Low: 48.21 High: 49.32 Close: 49.14

WTI/USD Technical
210616l

  • WTI/USD posted small gains in the Asian session. The pair was flat in European trade and has moved upwards in the North American session.
  •  46.49 is providing support
  • There is weak resistance at 50.13

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 46.49, 43.45, 39.32 and 35.25
  • Above: 50.13, 53.50 and 56.79

About Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher Currency Analyst, OANDA, Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years. Follow on and on his Google+ profile.

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Top trade idea for June 20th, 2016 – EUR/GBP

Trading opportunities for currency pair: a pinbar has formed on the weekly. On Monday it was activated after an opening with a downward gap. The current quote is 0.7787. The target for the pinbar is 0.7690. We need to enter the market from the bounce with a small volume so as not to risk our deposit. The results of the surveys will affect the market until Thursday. The pound is strengthening today; tomorrow it could fall quickly. If the trend line of channel 2 is passed, the road to 0.7503 will be open for the sellers. The idea will cancel with a close of the weekly candle above 0.7995.

Current Situation

The euro has strengthened against the pound from a 0.7565 minimum after the release of disappointing US labour market data and worries of a Brexit. The pair turned on its heel downwards on Thursday on news of the murder of MP Jo Cox, By the end of the week, the euro/pound had fallen to 0.7849. As a result, a pinbar appeared on the weekly.

Look at how a bullish pinbar has formed on the euro/dollar. This means we have contradictory signals. The idea will work if the UK votes to remain in the EU, with the pound strengthening throughout the market. The euro/pound will fall and the euro/dollar will rise.

The market opened with a downwards gap today. The pinbar was activated. It became clear after the murder of Jo Cox that the number of people wishing to remain in the EU is increasing. The pinbar target is 0.7690.

EURGBP

About Vladislav Antonov
Vladislav Antonov is an Alpari analyst since 2007.

In the top 5 most influential Russian financial analysts throughout 2012-2014. 3rd place in a Russian media rating of financial analysts for quarter 1 of 2015.

Vladislav is one the most media quoted financial analysts in Russia and the CIS and is known in the trader forums under the name of A-Vlad. He has been working on the Forex market since 2000 and he specializes in writing reviews on the Asian, American and European sessions as well as on the rate of gold and silver.

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US Crude Oil Dips Lower, US CPI Within Expectations

marketpulse

US crude has posted slight losses, continuing the slight downward trend we have seen most of the week. WTI Crude is trading at $ 46.41 in the North American session, its lowest level in close to a month. Brent crude is trading at $ 47.21, for a premium of $ 0.80. On the release front, consumer inflation was within expectations, as Core CPI and CPI both posted small gains of 0.2%. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index beat expectations, but Unemployment Claims was higher than expected. On Friday, the US releases Building Permits, a key release.

WTI crude prices have been pointing downwards, even as stockpiles of US crude continue to decline. Crude Oil Inventories posted a drop of 0.9 million barrels last week. The indicator has recorded declines in five of the past six readings, as lower supplies have helped stabilize the price of US crude in recent weeks. Meanwhile, OPEC said on Tuesday that it expects oil prices to drop in the second half of 2016, as shutdowns in Nigeria and Canada are expected to lead to tighter supplies than expected. Still, OPEC does not expect prices to move significantly higher, as the cartel acknowledged that the there is a massive oversupply of oil, which is weighing on oil prices.

The Federal Reserve was center stage on Wednesday, but there was no surprises as the Fed opted for the sidelines and held the benchmark rate at 0.25%, where it has been pegged since December 2015. A dismal Nonfarm Payrolls report and dovish statements from Fed chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues had all but decimated any chance of a June hike. Back in April, Fed chair Janet Yellen had renewed hopes of rate hike in the summer, when she said that she expected a rate hike in “the coming months”. The Fed’s tone has drastically changed since then, and there is a strong likelihood that the Fed will raise rates only once in 2016. The Fed statement did not shed any light on the timing of a rate hike, although many analysts are circling September in their calendars. The statement was cautious in tone, stating that the Fed expects US inflation levels to remain at low levels in the near term. As well, the Fed lowered its rate path outlook for 2016 and 2017. Gone are the heady days of December, when the Fed hinted that it could raise rates up to four times in 2016. Many analysts were skeptical about this rosy (brash?) prediction, and it appears that the Fed was overly optimistic about the strength of the US economy, as June has arrived and we are yet to see a rate hike in 2016.

WTI/USD Fundamentals
Thursday (June 16)

  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 1.1. Actual 4.7
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 267K. Actual 277K
  • 8:30 US Current Account. Estimate -125B. Actual -125B
  • 10:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 59. Actual 60
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 66B. Actual 69B

Friday (June 17)

  • 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.15M

*Key events are in bold
*All release times are EDT

WTI/USD for Thursday, June 16, 2016170616lWTI/USD June 16 at 12:10 EDT
Open: 47.43 Low: 46.16 High: 47.72 Close: 46.41

WTI/USD Technical
170616m

  • WTI/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair has posted losses in the European and North American sessions.
  •  43.45 is providing support
  • 46.69 was tested earlier in resistance and is under strong pressure

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 43.45, 39.32 and 35.25
  • Above: 46.69, 50.13, 53.50 and 56.79

About Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher Currency Analyst, OANDA, Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years. Follow on and on his Google+ profile.

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