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Bitcoin Prints New Highs, Progress Slow

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Bitcoin printed new highs today on most exchanges but progress remains slow. On BTC-E we opened at $ 286.96 then immediately rallied to a high of $ 289.97. From here we sold off to $ 284 dollars per coin but later in the day a new high of $ 289.99 was set, only to lead to another sell-off with prices eventually closing at $ 287.70, $ 1 dollar up on the day. We are currently quoted at $ 287.72 on BTC-E, practically unchanged since the close.

july28

On OKCoin we had a similarly volatile session with little to show for it. Here a high of $ 297.68 was reached today. This was a new 13-day high for BTC. But at the end of the day bitcoin closed up by only 70 cents at this exchange, at 294.33. One coin is selling for $ 294.05 on OKCoin right now. You can find a live chart HERE.

Futures also set new highs. For example, the September 25th contract traded as high as $ 315 dollars at one point, beating yesterday’s $ 314.51. But same as with other BTC markets, the highs were quickly sold and the contract closed the day +$ 3.22 dollars. This particular contract is quoting $ 308.79 dollars at the moment, about $ 14.74 above spot, on par with the premium seen yesterday.

While today’s session brings us closer to the $ 300 dollars handle, it doesn’t alter the technical picture. Furthermore the price action remains ambivalent. The sell-off from the highs was relatively small, few dollars or so, not nearly enough to call a blowout top or potential reversal.

The trend is still up, BTC/USD will need to trade below $ 265 on BTC-E and $ 269 on OKCoin to end it. On the higher end, some weak resistance can be found at $ 300 (BTC-E) and $ 305 (OKCoin). This is followed by a larger resistance area from $ 310 to $ 318 dollars (BTC-E), and $ 314 to $ 321 (OKCoin). A breakout above this area should extend the BTC gains.

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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Bitcoin Nears $300 Dollars Again

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After a two-week hiatus that saw bitcoin prices dip to a low of $ 269.68 dollars per coin, we are back at the $ 300 dollars mark. Today on OKCoin we hit an intraday high of $ 296.24 before falling back. We are currently quoted at $ 293.57 dollars. The TradingView chart below shows today’s trading session on OKCoin.

july27

On BTC-E we saw a calmer day, with prices oscillating between $ 280 and $ 288 dollars per coin. We are currently trading at $ 285.77 on this exchange. This is about $ 7 dollars below the average compared to the other major exchanges. You can find a quick snapshot of BTC prices on this page.

OKCoin futures are continuing the march higher. The July 31st contract is quoting $ 295.26 dollars while the far-out September 25th contract is trading at $ 308.31. This is $ 15 dollars above the current spot price, a tad higher compared to yesterday’s premium. As long as prices move higher, this premium should increase. But if and when the rally reverses, this contract may be susceptible to large losses.

The important levels remain unchanged. Today’s $ 2 dollars gain doesn’t alter the technical picture. The first weak resistance can be found at $ 300 (BTC-E) and $ 305 (OKCoin). This is followed by a relatively large resistance area stretching from the July 12th swing highs to the yearly highs. On BTC-E this area is from $ 310 to $ 318 dollars per coin, on OKCoin it’s from $ 314 to $ 321 dollars. A breakout above it should extend the gains. On the lower end, a decisive break below the $ 270 dollars support will end the rally.

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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Bitcoin Up $3 Dollars as Slow March Continues

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Bitcoin is up $ 3 dollars today, after yesterday’s lull. We opened at $ 283.05, stay flat for most of the day, then rallied to a high of $ 288.50 dollars per coin. We are currently quoted at $ 286.94 on BTC-E, not far from the highs. We can see the price action for the last three days on the chart below.

july26

On OKCoin we opened at $ 288 flat, then rallied to a high of $ 293.13 around mid-day. We are trading at $ 291.78 right now. You can find a live OKCoin chart HERE. You can also find several BTC/USD charts from various exchanges on TradingView, a popular web-based chart platform.

Futures on OKCoin rallied strongly today. The September 25th contract opened at $ 300.88 and hit a high of $ 310.01. It’s currently quoted at $ 307.66 dollars. This puts the premium over spot at just under $ 16 dollars. This is relatively high but we’ve seen futures prices diverge strongly during times of high volatility. On July 10th this particular contract hit a high of $ 356.02 before closing at $ 305.46. The premium on that day was over $ 50 dollars at one point. Cascading margin calls and leverage can exacerbate moves on futures. On some platforms (like OKCoin), winning futures traders may be negatively affected by ”clawback”. More on the this HERE.

The trend is still up for bitcoin. The uptick during the past few days helps to alleviate some of the pressure the bulls faced near the $ 270 mark. As we’ve said before, this is the line in the sand for the rally. A decisive break below here would end the uptrend. On the upper side, weak resistance can be found at $ 300 (BTC-E) and $ 305 (OKCoin). This is followed by a resistance area stretching from the July 12th swing highs to the yearly highs. On BTC-E this area is from $ 310 to $ 318 dollars per coin, while on OKCoin it’s from $ 314 to $ 321 dollars. A breakout above this resistance should extend the gains.

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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Bitcoin Unchanged, BitMex Increases Leverage

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Bitcoin is trading more or less unchanged today, after yesterday’s breakout. On BTC-E we are trading in a tight daily range between $ 280 and $ 287 dollars per coin. On OKCoin we saw a similarly tight range between $ 284 and $ 292. Prices are currently quoted exactly where we left them yesterday, $ 283 on BTC-E and $ 288 on OKCoin. The chart below shows today’s flatness compared to the breakout day preceding it. Futures on OKCoin are trading at $ 288 for the nearer contract and $ 299.63 for the far-out September 25th issue.

july25

Starting from Monday BitMex, a provider of bitcoin financial instruments, will start to offer 25:1 leverage on their futures platform, up from 10:1 leverage previously. The announcement posted on the company’s blog showcases how their new Dynamic Profit Equalisation System would work in practice. While BitMex says that there are no socialized losses in the traditional sense, under the new rules:

”Profits are held until settlement or rebalancing of a particular contract. The system loss is calculated, and trader’s profits are adjusted proportionally. Using BitMEX’s state-of-the-art trading engine, BitMEX is able to calculate the projected loss percentage in real-time, giving traders the chance to make trading decisions based on the anticipated systemic loss.”

If I understand this correctly, there will be some type of a clawback but traders will be able to see in real-time what their ”damage” will be come Friday. In our article yesterday we expanded on the potential effect of socialized losses i.e. clawbacks.

Futures contracts on BitMex are quoted at $ 304 dollars for the XBTU15 contract expiring on September 25th. Liquidity is lower compared to say OKCoin. For example the current bid/ask spread for Sept25 is $ 302 and $ 308 dollars. This compares to $ 299.13 and $ 299.65 on OKCoin for the same settlement date.

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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Top Trade Idea for July 24th, 2015 –USD/SGD

cmcSell an “M” Reversal in USD/SGD

Conventional wisdom is that the USD will continue to strengthen as the first Fed rate hike approaches. However:

  • Markets rarely go anywhere in a straight line
  • The US Dollar index is up 4% over the last 5 weeks, and more than 20% since February 2014
  • Some of the most profitable technical trades go against the fundamentals.

With these points in mind, have a look at this possible reversal signal:

july 24

This set up fulfils the “M” reversal criteria – the first peak is outside the Bollinger bands, the second peak within. The question is whether the current candle is the peak. To confirm the pattern, the next candle must have a lower high and low than the current candle. The sell signal comes on a close below the low of the current candle, at 1.3675.

Assuming an entry around 1.3670, a stop loss order may be placed above the high of the current candle at 1.3720. The target is not clear cut, as this is NOT a Bollinger band trade, but a trend change trade. Traders may therefore look at a trailing stop loss/ take profit of around 50 points, and let the market decide how far the market will drop.

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Top trade idea for July 23rd, 2015 – EURUSD

eurusdh4

I am looking at a bullish scenario for the eurusd pair and the fact that we’ve managed to break the pivotal area to the upside should provide support on each and every retest now.

As a target to the upside the 1.14 should be retested again and that should be the moment where we will have a clearer picture if we’re in a leg of a contracting triangle or an impulsive move already started from the 1.08 area.

After the Greece deal eurusd and Euro as a whole has been consistently being bought and squeezed a bit as positioning was on the short side. This creates perfect conditions for a move higher as by the time levels are being broken more bulls will join the party.

All in all this should be either a complex correction in the form of a running pattern that should be followed by an extended wave, or a second wave in an impulsive move, so staying long with 1.1433 take profit and 1.08 stop loss should work.

About Mircea Vasiu

capital properties fxMircea Vasiu has an MBA in International Business from an American University, graduating Magna Cum Laudae. He has been a professional trader for the last 8 years and is involved in various educational projects for different financial companies. He also runs a trading signal for the currency markets at www.capitalpropertiesfx.com.

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Chart Of The Day For July 22th ,2015 – EUR/USD

  • EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Support: 1.0968, 1.0818, 1.0661
  • Resistance:1.1100, 1.1277, 1.1466

The Euro is attempting to overturn the near-term down trend in play since mid-June against the US Dollar.Near-term trend line resistance is at 1.1100, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the June 29 high at 1.1277. Alternatively, move below the 1.0968-1.10 area (horizontal pivot, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion) opens the door for a challenge of the May 27 low at 1.0818.

An actionable trade setup is absent at this point, arguing against taking a trade in line with our long-term outlook. With that in mind, we will remain on the sidelines for the time being until an attractive opportunity presents itself.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Trend Line Under Pressure

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Bitcoin Slightly Higher, BTC-E Down

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Bitcoin is trading slightly higher today. On BTC-E prices have stabilized after Saturday’s crash. We opened at $ 268, fell to $ 264.31 before rallying to $ 271 dollars per coin. But bitcoin is still trading at a discount compared to other exchanges. For example now OKCoin is quoting $ 276.87 while BitStamp is at $ 277.54. You can find a live snapshot of the major BTC exchanges HERE.

july20

Despite the loss of momentum, bitcoin is still in an uptrend. The bears haven’t managed to take out the important support at $ 268/$ 270, yet. You can see this level on the 2H OKCoin chart above. This is a previous resistance area so it’s not a surprise that BTC prices stalled here on the way down. Resistance turns to support and the $ 270 level has already repelled prices on three separate occasions in the past 8 days. A clean break below here would end the uptrend. Note that there are a lot of games being played around important levels like these, so a short and shallow break may not be sufficient. Prices will need to decisively break this area.

In order to restart the momentum higher BTC/USD will need to break the 2015 high at $ 321 (OKCoin) and $ 318 (BTC-E). If you’re trading on BTC-E, keep in mind that you may encounter low liquidity and spikey price action. Just two days ago prices flash-crashed on the exchange after a large order cleared the BTC/USD orderbook. You should confirm the price moves by watching other major exchanges as well (OKCoin, BitStamp, Coinbase).

At the time this article was posted (17:00 CET, 11:00 EST) BTC-E was down for several hours. The reason was the downtime is unknown. Speculations range from a hardware failure to a hack. We’ll keep you updated on the situation.

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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Bitcoin Flash-Crashes on BTC-E, Other Exchanges Stable

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Bitcoin flashed crashed on the BTC-E platform, falling close to 30 percent before recovering completely. The crash happened on a large sell order for several thousand coins. It’s unclear why the owner decided to dump the entire lot on the open market. The usual rumors are abound, ranging from a bug to a hacked account or a fat finger mistake. The exchange hasn’t published any news about the event so I assume they’re treating it as legitimate trading.

july18

The crash started at 13:45 server time (6:45 EST) and by 13:46 prices had traded to a low of $ 194.92. The recovery was equally as vicious with BTC/USD back to $ 260 dollars per coin by 13:48. Other exchanges didn’t participate in the event and stayed stable during the entire ordeal. Bitcoin traded flat for the rest of the day on BTC-E and is currently quoted at $ 267.60 dollars.

The crash may be a result of weak liquidity during the summer dull-drums. The last time a flash-crash of this magnitude happened on BTC-E was also in the summer last year. On August 18th 2014 prices crashed over $ 130 dollars, from $ 467 to a low of $ 334.  You can read more about this event HERE.

While bitcoin stayed stable on other exchanges, the crash should worry the bears. In our yesterday article we cautioned that ”the constant pushing on the support at $ 270 dollars is not good for the bullish scenario. With each test, the odds increase that we will get a break below. And if $ 270 goes, the swing low at $ 260 dollars won’t be far behind”.

The flash-crash clearly demonstrates that the path of least resistance is to the downside. And while other exchanges didn’t experience losses, they didn’t gain either as BTC/USD remained glued to the $ 270 level. A clearing of the $ 265-$ 270 support area (OKCoin) and a move lower would end the current bitcoin rally. You can find a live OKCoin chart HERE.

Get our free guide to bitcoin trading here.

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Top Trade Idea For July 17th, 2015 – NZD/JPY

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It’s been a rough few weeks for the Kiwi Dollar with falling milk prices, weak inflation and expectations of a second rate cut at next week’s central bank meeting.

Despite all that, the NZDJPY chart is showing early signs of a possible bullish divergence setup. If price rallies from here, it will confirm a lower low while the 14 day RSI would diverge making a higher low. Not only that, if a rally of any significance gets underway from here it would complete a double bottom pattern on the price chart with a break above the dashed resistance line.

One common strategy for RSI divergence setups is to buy if the RSI closes above its most recent peak after diverging. This is shown by the dashed resistance line in the box below the chart.  A close above this resistance would confirm the RSI making both higher lows and higher highs. It would also be rising out of the oversold zone so this might be a strategy to get in early on the double bottom setup. However, if the RSI can’t do this and price keeps falling, there is no setup.

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About Ric Spooner

ric spooner

Ric Spooner is Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. He has over 30 years experience in derivates markets, and was previously a Managing Director at Sydney Futures Exchange Clearing, General Manager at JBWere Futures and Manager at Elders Futures.

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